Round 25: Raiders v Panthers preview
Only a week ago the Penrith Panthers looked to be on the verge of competing for another minor premiership.
Now, they are walking a delicate tightrope in the final month of the season with star halfback Nathan Cleary injured and a home final suddenly no longer guaranteed.
While their opposition this week, the Canberra Raiders, look virtually eliminated from the finals race after last Saturday's heavy defeat to the Cowboys, they remain a mathematical chance of making it.
It means, as much as this looks like a straight-forward win for the visitors, it could turn out to be anything but against a Raiders outfit with everything - including pride - to play for at GIO Stadium.
Canberra was comprehensively outclassed 42-4 by the Cowboys last week, marking three straight losses for the Green Machine.
Ricky Stuart's men now find themselves four points adrift of the top eight with the fourth-worst for-and-against in the league.
Penrith, meanwhile, went down 24-22 in a thriller to Melbourne and sit two points ahead of the Roosters and Sharks.
But both teams have a better points differential, meaning a loss here could see the Panthers tumble all the way down to fourth.
In team news, Brad Schneider returns to face his former club in place of Cleary while Liam Martin is back from suspension. Elsewhere, Luke Sommerton starts for the suspended Mitch Kenny at hooker. Paul Alamoti (arm) and Luke Garner (hamstring) are on the extended bench and could also figure to be late inclusions.
As for Canberra, Jordan Rapana (concussion) returns at fullback with Kaeo Weekes moving to five-eighth and Adam Cook dropping to 18th man. Albert Hopoate is named on the wing, with Seb Kris shifting to the centres while Ethan Strange (calf) is sidelined.
Last meeting: Round 5 2023 - Raiders 12 Panthers 53
Who to watch: For the home side, the Raiders have a mobile forward pack that could match Penrith and so they could be a chance of an upset if Josh Papalii sets the tone early. Papalii is the kind of front rower who can cause issues for the Panthers' defence given he is already hard enough to tackle as is without the threat of a late offload, which can in turn give the likes of Tom Starling and Danny Levi the space to run through the middle. That is particularly true this week with Kenny sidelined. Sommerton is a zippy attacking threat but has been targeted in defence in his limited NRL games and the Raiders will be well-served playing the power game early and Papalii is the man to lead the way in that regard.
As for the Panthers, all eyes once again will turn to Jarome Luai as he prepares to shoulder more responsibility as the team's chief playmaker. Luai has thrived with the extra responsibility, both in club land and the representative arena, stepping up to give Tigers fans an early glimpse into what he could look like as the team's marquee man in 2025. Luai's long-range kicking game, decision-making in attack and general leadership has gone to another level without Cleary and the Panthers will need him to maintain that in what shapes as a potential banana peel game against a desperate Raiders side.
FAVOURITE: The Panthers are well-supported to bounce back from last week's loss.
MY TIP: This has danger game written all over it for the Panthers. The Raiders have been hopelessly out of form in recent weeks and while they are only a mathematical chance of making the finals at this point, a win this week and favourable results around them could make things interesting. Add in the fact they are returning home and the Panthers are coming off a gruelling loss to the Storm and this could end up being a lot closer than many expect. I'm still going to lean towards Penrith given the premiers' superior defensive structure, but an upset here would not surprise at all.
