Match Centre

Finals Week 1: Cowboys v Knights preview

Do or die clash for finals hopefuls

A month ago, no one gave the Newcastle Knights any hope of reaching the finals, as they sat in twelfth spot - four points behind the Dragons in eighth. Somehow, Newcastle came off victorious in four of their last five games, and benefited from losses to teams above them to snag eighth place by the skin of their teeth.

They come off a tightly fought 14-8 win against the Dolphins, who were battling desperately for their maiden finals berth, but came up just short against a Knights outfit with plenty of fight. This fight, is what coach Adam O'Brien thinks will give his side the edge this week, as they travel up to Townsville to face the North Queensland Cowboys, who have enjoyed a somewhat breezy end to their season.

It seems North Queensland are peaking at just the right time, with their backend of the year silencing critics, and positioning themselves as genuine contenders to win the premiership. Remarkably, it's the fifth placed Cowboys which have the best record against top eight teams in 2024, winning seven of ten games against this season's finalists, compared to only one of ten games won by the Knights.

This was demonstrated to perfection last week, being only the second team this year to score over 30 points against the Bulldogs, with a 44-6 flogging of the side so renowned for their strong defence. They'll be looking to build momentum with another convincing win and push to become the first team in the NRL era to win a grand final from outside the top four.

In team news, the Cowboys welcome back Jordan McLean to start in the front row, pushing Sam McIntyre to the bench and Thomas Mikaele into the reserves. The Knights have named an unchanged 17 from their victory last week, with Kai Pearce-Paul being added to the extended squad, with a chance of returning from an injury suffered in round 25.

Last meeting: Round 2 2024 - Cowboys 21 Knights 20

Who to watch: Although plenty of praise has quite rightly been heaped on Cowboys co-captain Tom Dearden, I believe halves partner Jake Clifford is worthy of equal recognition. His kicking game has been on point in 2024, and looks more comfortable controlling the game each week In only his second NRL finals game to date, a lot of eyes will be on Clifford to see if his strong form can continue. 
Despite holding strong in recent weeks, the edge defence of North Queensland has been subject to scrutiny throughout 2024. This opens up the door beautifully for Tyson Frizell, who runs a dangerous line and is capable of punching holes from anywhere on the field. He was uncharacteristically quiet when these sides met in round two, but with the Knights season on the line, except Frizell to step up big time. 

FAVOURITE: The North Queensland Cowboys are favourites to win at home

MY TIP: I have a soft spot for the Knights, and they're capable of playing enthralling football on their day. Still, such a cut-throat end to the season can't do well for a team's stamina and fitness, and a warm afternoon in Townsville shapes to be their biggest test yet. The Cowboys have taken all the criticism handed to them the last two years in their stride and forged a culture one has to admire. At home, I think they'll be too strong. Cowboys by 14.