2019 Preview: Canberra Raiders

Set your mind back to 2016. The Storm lead Canberra 14-6, defending a full set of six on their own line. Off the scrum, Kurt Baptiste quickly shifts the ball left to Jack Wighton, and like clockwork, it lands right in Edrick Lee's lap, the try line in sight and a grand final berth that much closer. Most devout Raiders fans would have already been up on their feet. But in the split second that they had done so, their premiership hopes had been dashed. The ball came spilling out of Lee's grasps. 

The Raiders went on to score another try, but it wasn't enough. 14-12 was the final score line. In no way is Lee solely responsible for the loss. That is not the point being made here. But looking back at the past two seasons in the nation's capital, you get the sense that with the dropped ball, Canberra squandered their only shot at glory. Because since then, they have been the competition's greatest disappointments. 

This is a talented roster. There is no doubting that. In fact, heading into 2018, only one of their starting thirteen from that Preliminary Final defeat were not at the club anymore. And ironically enough, it was Lee. He had been replaced by teen prodigy Nick Cotric, who has since taken the league by storm. Perhaps they overachieved that year. But while Ricky Stuart may maintain that he will remain at the club for another two years, he will need to find out how to get the best out of the league's perennial underachievers or risk an early exit. 

The only positive Raiders fans can take out of 2018 is the fact that, realistically, had luck gone their way, they would have made their return to the top eight. It was a frustrating year for Stuart's men, who lost 11 games by nine points or less. And while they may not have realised it at the time, their opening three matches of the year foreshadowed what was to come. First, they lead the Titans 24-6 before crashing to a 30-28 loss. The next week, no lead was blown but they were on the wrong end of the same score line. And the third-straight loss was the toughest - a 20-19 defeat to the Warriors, after leading by seven points heading into the final four minutes. While the Raiders could have certainly used some luck, they also were begging for some steely resilience. Someone to stand up and lead them in those anxious final few moments. That man had been at the club all along. But when he returned to guide Canberra to a 48-12 win over the Tigers, their season was already lost. Josh Hodgson couldn't save them. 

Heading into the new year, the Raiders can take plenty of confidence out of the way they ended 2018. It wasn't just the fact that they beat eventual Premiers the Roosters and preliminary finalists Souths, it was that they outlasted both in the same tight contests that had swallowed them whole all season. Unfortunately, just as Hodgson sat out the first half of 2018, star winger Jordan Rapana will do the same this year after dislocating his shoulder. His creative flair will be missed, but luckily for Canberra, scoring points has never been an issue for them.

Why they'll win it

In fact, despite finishing 10 points adrift of the top eight, the Raiders scored the second-most points in 2018. While it would take a brave pundit to predict Canberra will be challenging for the title this year, their confidence in attack means that Stuart would have had one less thing to work on in the off-season. A fit and firing Hodgson should only improve their offence as unlike some of the other Raiders, who score points off the back of speed and energy, the 29-year old is one of the more tactical players in our game. With a smart kicking game and perfect delivery out of dummy-half, there should be plenty of tries in the nation's capital in 2019. 

Why they won't

While the Raiders may have plenty of natural ability, what they missed last year was a level head. Sam Williams and Aidan Sezer have copped a lot of criticism recently for their inability to close out games. Both are quite similar players and it may explain why Wighton looks set to nab the five-eighth jersey, with his dangerous running game considered a better complement to Sezer. In saying this, Sezer and Williams haven't been helped by a broader ill-discipline within the playing squad. As the second-most penalised side in the competition last year, the Raiders too easily marched the opposition towards their own try line, often costing them the two points. Similarly, while their attacking flair is certainly a positive, the audacious offloads should be reserved for chasing points rather than protecting a lead. If the Raiders are to challenge for a top-eight spot in 2019, they need to adopt a more pragmatic approach in the final ten minutes of games.

2019 Draw

Key players

After almost being axed by the Raiders for a drunken incident last year, Wighton is already under plenty of pressure heading into 2019. But now he has the added responsibility of proving he could be Canberra's long-term option in the number six jersey. The 26-year old does have a strong running game - so did Blake Austin. But Austin struggled for consistency and when it was needed, wasn't able to offer Sezer enough support in the kicking department. With time and patience running out, Wighton's NRL career may hinge on his performances in 2019. 

Rookies

After signing for the club on Friday, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad arrives with the clear intention of staking his claim for a spot in the Canberra backline. Restricted to just seven first-grade appearances in his two years across the ditch, the 23-year old could either slot in on the wing for the injured Rapana or at fullback if Wighton is moved to five-eighth. The utility back scored seven tries from his seven games at the Warriors and should provide the Raiders with the slick finishing skills any modern-day winger needs to succeed at the top level.

Player Movements

Gains: Ryan Sutton, John Bateman (Wigan), JJ Felise (Knights), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors)

Losses: Shannon Boyd (Titans), Junior Paulo (Eels), Blake Austin (Warrington), Charlie Gubb (Widnes), Mikaele Ravalawa (Dragons), Liam Knight (Rabbitohs), Craig Garvey (Roosters

Best 17*

*Jordan Rapana not considered due to shoulder injury.