State of Origin Game II: Betting Markets Declassified

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With Queensland leading the series 1-0 and enjoying the advantage of two home games, the pride of an entire nation rests on a knife edge. The last several years have seen something of a turnaround from the norm, with Queensland's dominance of the Origin series put into real jeopardy over the past five years.

Last year's series saw Queensland's mortal nemesis New South Wales (NSW) turn Australia blue for the second time in Origin editions, but a run of three wins between 2003 and 2005 represents the last time NSW last claimed successive Origin wins, and with Brad Fittler on the touchline, they look well-placed to remedy that.

2018: NSW win Origin with a game to spare under Fittler.

However, Queensland know that they are just as capable of consigning all talk of a power shift into the dustbin. They certainly showed immense character in their fightback from 8-0 down to triumph 18-14 back in Game I, but what sort of trends can we expect from Game II and beyond?

HT/FT - Potential turnover and winning margins

The comeback win from Queensland was, in fact, their second in as many home games, and served to shorten what were already excellent odds in their favour to recapture the Origin title in current rugby league betting outright markets for the 2019 Origin series. Queensland's margin of their victory in the second half of their last two Origin home matches is also eye-catching, with Queensland winning it by ten points or more.

If going back to the 2017 series, three of Queensland's last four home matches have seen them win by that resounding margin in the second half. With Brad Fittler at the helm of NSW, there seems to be little chance of Queensland winning the entire match by a margin of ten or more points, having last done so on home turf in Game III of 2017.

Teams winning more recent Origin games have only ever improved on their half-time situation, be it an improvement on their winning margin, or their status as winners/losers.

Over/Under 30 points - Game I vs Game II

While predicting the winner sometimes seems like an easy task, making an informed decision on how many points will be scored in total seems like more of a complex process. It would stand to reason that the total points scored in Game II would exceed those scored in Game I. By this time, recuperation from Game I is complete, and the two sides are more familiar with one another.

With one team also generally trailing from Game I, desperation from one party will seep in, opening up the game and creating a more entertaining spectacle than the series opener. However, last year's first two Origin games contradicted this idea, with Game I outscoring Game II 34-32 - and vice-versa the year before. Overall though, points have been assured, with the last nine Origin clashes producing over 30 points in total.

The last two Origin series have seen all of their games produce at least 25 points or more.

Whitewash Unlikely

The natural expectation is for Queensland to go 2-0 up and claim back the Origin title with a game to spare. That would put them on the cusp of a whitewash, but they lost both away games en-route to a lost series in 2018, which has ultimately served to lengthen the odds of Queensland winning 3-0 in 2019.