Which Teams Will Make The NRL Finals This Year?

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With the NRL having now reached the midpoint of the 2021 season, the ladder is beginning to take shape. A top tier has separated itself from the rest, while a large group is set to battle it out over the coming few months for a handful of spots in the top eight. So just which teams will be finalists come September?

The Locks

There are five teams who have jumped ahead of the chasing pack over the course of the first half of the season, and it's virtually a foregone conclusion that they will all feature in the finals. The Panthers have been unbelievable as they seek redemption for last year's Grand Final loss, winning all of their first 12 games, while the team that beat them in the Melbourne Storm are not far behind. The Eels are having another great season too, having won nine of their first 12, the Rabbitohs have the same record and the perennially dangerous Roosters have virtually locked in their finals spot with half a season to go. These teams are all wedged well and truly inside the top eight and, even if any of them fail to fire in the back half of the season, should have banked enough wins in the first half of the year to get them to September.

The Contenders

There are a plethora of teams who would consider themselves good chances to take one of the remaining three spots, but unfortunately the maths can't work out for all of them. The Sea Eagles are best placed - they've improved significantly from last season and look like the best team out of this group. The Cowboys have joined them in rising up the ladder after a poor 2020, and having won exactly half of their first 12 games find themselves nestled inside the eight - at least for the time being.

There are, however, a number of teams which look likely to make a move over the next few weeks. One of those is 2019 Grand Finalist and 2020 Preliminary Finalist the Canberra Raiders, who have endured a torrid start to the season in winning just four of their first 12. They are behind the eight-ball but certainly have the talent to catch up, as do the Titans, who are only marginally ahead of Canberra but also appear poised to make a run. Outside of these four, the Warriors also need to be given a chance - they have had a season full of close games but have done enough to win a little under half of them, and are right on the precipice of the eight as a result.

The Contenders

Already we've listed ten teams who need to fit into eight spots, but there are still a couple more who deserve a mention. The most obvious of these is the Dragons, who find themselves in the eight at the halfway point of the season, but they are there courtesy of a 4-1 start to the season and have regressed significantly since. 

Elsewhere, the Newcastle Knights are just a game out of the eight as they search for a second consecutive finals appearance. Cronulla Sharks fans would perhaps be labelled wishful thinkers if they gave themselves a shot, but with back-to-back wins heading into the bye, they are not without a puncher's chance. Even the Wests Tigers, who few would perceive as a finals worthy team, won three of five games heading to the midway point of the season and, despite a poor start to the year, are only a couple of wins away from being right back in the hunt.

Clearly, it's a wide open race for the last few spots in the NRLs top eight. The Panthers, Storm, Eels, Rabbitohs and Roosters have established themselves as a clear top five and are all teams which have a chance at winning the NRL Grand Final this season, but with a big gap back to the rest there are a multitude of others who have a genuine opportunity to squeeze into the finals. Betway have the Panthers as the 2.62 favourite to win the grand final. As for what happens when they get there - well, it's hard to see any of them getting through the big five, but finals footy is a different beast and stranger things have happened in the past.