Clive Churchill Medal guide: 2021 NRL Grand Final

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Winning team or losing team? A half? A fullback? Who claims the Clive Churchill Medal for the best player in tonight's Grand Final. Rick Edgerton looks at both starting 13's and how each player looks ahead of the big one.

All odds listed are courtesy of Sportsbet and were correct at the time of writing (Tuesday 28 September). Prices will inevitably change throughout the week.

PENRITH PANTHERS 

1. Dylan Edwards - $34 
After missing week one of the finals through injury, Edwards has produced two high quality performances against the Eels and Storm running for an average 215 metres and busting 13 tackles. Also looked very safe under the high ball taking some high pressure bombs and is brilliant at supporting up the middle whenever a Panthers break is made. Probably lacks the ball playing ability to tip with confidence but a sneaky chance if you think he can nab a try or two.  

2. Stephen Crichton - $67
Strike outside back who brings plenty of X factor to the Panthers backline. Has crossed the try line twice this finals series and with his big athletic frame it'd be no surprise to see him cross again. Is averaging 174 metres throughout the three finals but that number is inflated thanks to his week one performance where he ran for 293 metres whilst filling in for Edwards at fullback. Needs tries and lots of them to be a legitimate chance. 

3. Paul Momirovski - $81
At his fourth club in as many years and has been a solid contributor for the mountain men at right centre. Shows good game awareness and is more than capable of setting up his outside man in try scoring situations. Had a particularly strong game against his former club in the prelim but not likely to be a serious contender.

4. Matt Burton - $26
Expected to play second fiddle to Penrith's halves coming into the season, Burton has instead displayed good enough form to nail down a position at centre where he's crossed for 16 tries, keeping Crichton on the wing in the process. Has a booming left foot step he'll be ready to unleash if given any space on Sunday night. Has been kept fairly quiet in the finals with just the one line-break but an outside chance if you think the game comes his way.  

5. Brian To'o - $26
Outstanding season for the Panthers flyer helping his team to the grand final and the Blues to a dominant series victory. Has been eating metres for breakfast, leading the league in both running and post contact metres and is an expert finisher close to the line. Shows amazing evasive skills often using his diminutive frame to duck under defenders or simply shrug them off with his underrated strength. Missed the final against Parra in week two to rest his ankle but returned in good order against the Storm in the prelim. Would have to buck history with no wingers winning the medal in its 35-year history but given the influence he's had on games this year he looks a knockout chance at big odds. 

6. Jarome Luai - $15
Another Panther who broke into the Origin arena this year adding to the big game experience he tasted throughout last year's finals. Admitting his form dropped coming out of that Origin campaign in the absence of Nathan Cleary alongside him, Luai looked considerably sharper with the ball in hand in the prelim win over the Storm. At his best when he's playing and reacting on instinct and with Cleary likely to receive a lot of attention in the decider there's every chance it opens up for Luai to shine. Strong chance.

7. Nathan Cleary - $4
On the cusp of completing the ultimate season of redemption, Cleary will lead the Panthers into the final battle to atone for last year's grand final loss. Played a major hand in New South Wales regaining the Origin shield but you get the sense Cleary's number one drive all year was to get back on this stage and reverse the result. Ultra consistent competitor with the best kicking game in the comp and a brilliant game manager, Cleary has all the key big game attributes covered. Seemed to pick up a knock on his troublesome shoulder late in the win over the Storm which is the only query but has toughed it out to come this far. Sure to have a major baring on the outcome. Finished second only to Tom Trbojevic in the Dally M count and deserved favourite in this market.  

8. Moses Leota - $81
Racing the clock to be fit after missing last week due to a calf strain he aggravated against the Eels in week 2. Only played 33 minutes in that contest and ran for just 58 metres. At his best, Leota packs plenty of punch through the middle and if the medical team can get him right, will give the Panthers some much needed fresh legs after some physical encounters but hard to see him figuring in man of the match discussions here. 

9. Apisai Koroisau - $13
Amongst the craftiest number nine's in the game and no stranger to racking up a 50 plus tackle count. A line-break against the Eels in week 2 is his only attacking stat for the finals and surprisingly he only has one try assist to his name for the entire year. Stats aren't everything of course and much of that could be put down to the dominant voices of Cleary and Luai demanding the ball. Has a dynamic running game out of acting half and always a threat close to the line. I'll be looking to others, but if you think the game opens up around the ruck than he has to be given some hope.

10. James Fisher-Harris - $23
Picked up a knock to his knee against the Storm in the prelim and is considered to be in some doubt but the tough as teak kiwi international will be a hard man to rule out with the trophy on the line. At his best Fisher-Harris is one of the premier front-rowers in the game capable of blasting the ruck with his damaging runs of the footy. Hasn't been at his best this finals series averaging 87 metres compared to his season average of 151. Those numbers suggest he may have been carrying a niggle prior to last week. Hard to see him figuring for the medal unless he can make a speedy return to full fitness.

17. Liam Martin - $67
Named on the interchange but will surely be promoted to the run on side an hour before kickoff as has been the case for the past two months. Hard-nosed footballer who can run a tough line against the grain or hit a hole on his opposite man's outside shoulder. Tireless worker as evidenced by his 46 tackles in the prelim. Gained valuable big match experience in his debut Origin series this year. Unlike most edge back-rowers, doesn't play the full 80 minutes mainly due to the presence of Viliame Kikau on the bench. Unlikely for man of the match honours here unless you think he crosses for a couple of meat pies.

12. Kurt Capewell - $26
Hard working back-rower who can hit a gap in attack to find the try line. Has been at the forefront of the Panthers heroic defensive efforts over the past fortnight making 46 tackles against the Eels and cracking the half century with 50 against the Storm, a number of which came in key moments. Has plenty of big match experience with 11 finals matches and 6 Origins to his name. Heading to the Broncos next season, Capewell will be doing everything he can to ensure he finishes his short stint at the Panthers with a premiership. Great value if you're looking for one at bigger odds. 

13. Isaah Yeo - $11
Despite playing an integral role in getting his club to their second straight Grand Final and nailing down a Blues jersey this year, Yeo somehow still seems a touch underrated when you hear pundits talking about the modern day lock forwards. Plays the link role through the middle as well as any and is the ultimate foil for Luai and Cleary. Tireless worker in defence with an exceptional tackle efficiency rate of a tick under 98%, meaning he rarely misses his man. Displays neat footwork in and around the ruck which combined with his strength often sees him break the line. Everything he does is with intent and he could easily end up producing the match-winning play. Looks excellent value at double figure odds. 

Interchange - No interchange player has ever won the award and that's not likely to change this year. Tyrone May, Viliame Kikau, Scott Sorensen and Spencer Leniu shape the Panthers pine with Kikau at $34 the only one you could consider. Coming off the interchange, he has the potential to break the game open with his large frame near unstoppable close to the line. 

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS 

1. Blake Taaffe - $34
After Latrell Mitchell was suspended for his infamous shot on Joey Manu in round 24, most judges were quick to put the red pen through the Rabbitohs premiership chances. At 22 years of age and just seven top grade appearances to his name, Taaffe will now enter Sunday evening's decider as the most inexperienced player in the NRL era to run out in a Grand Final. A halfback by trade, the South Sydney youngster has done a remarkable job at the back and barring one early dropped bomb from Cleary in week one of the finals has shown great composure under the high ball. Looks a bit of a jack in the box with the ball in hand capable of busting tackles and being a halfback by trade has served him well having setup three tries in his two finals games. Understandably big odds given his inexperience but if you're looking for a real smoky at odds and like a Souths' win, he's certainly not the worst option. 

2. Alex Johnston - $51
The best finisher in the game with 29 tries this season making him the competition's leading try-scorer for the second straight year. With speed to burn Johnston will turn a half chance into a certain four-pointer within the blink of an eye. If the bunnies looked like being big winners you could almost entertain throwing a cheeky bet on him at the odds, but not in the tight grueling encounter this grand final shapes to be. 

3. Dane Gagai - $67
Big match player with 19 appearances for Queensland at Origin level and the Wally Lewis medal winner for man of the series in 2017. Gagai has been strong all season and a key part of the Rabbitohs lethal left side attack. With two try-assists in his two finals played, he's every chance of setting up his winger whilst having the strength and footwork to cross himself. After losing four prelims throughout his career, the 30-year-old has finally made it to his first grand final and will be looking to make every post a winner before heading back to Newcastle next year. No centre has won the award, but given his ability to perform on the big stage you have to give him some chance at massive odds.

4. Campbell Graham - $81
Very underrated player who never puts a foot wrong and has a real feel for the game. Has been a staple of South Sydney's side for a number of years and poses a real threat close to the line. His tall lanky frame makes him an aerial threat and it would come as no surprise to see him cross the stripe but claiming Clive is probably out of the question. 

5. Jaxson Paulo - $81
Another Rabbitohs outside back with limited experience, Paulo has just 24 top grade games under his belt and will be sure to be tested in the air off the boot of Cleary. Has shown little signs of nerves to date however and has scored three tries in his two finals games. His height should serve him well in the air and he looks to possess great footwork which troubled the Sea Eagles at times in the prelim. Promising player but little chance of being best on ground. 

6. Cody Walker - $6.50
Second favourite in betting on the back of his best individual season. The Rabbitohs pivot sits on top of the tree for both try and line-break assists with 33 and 44 respectively. Interestingly, hasn't recorded a try-assist and only one line-break assist in his two finals games despite seemingly putting to bed the theory that he goes missing in big games. Scored a try in week one against the Panthers and crossed for two opportunistic tries against Manly in the prelim. Has all the skills and will be scheming all night in order to unlock the Panthers brick wall defence. Strong chance if the Rabbitohs prevail but certainly won't get things all his own way in this one. 

7. Adam Reynolds - $17
Battled through a groin strain in the prelim to help guide his team to Sunday's decider despite relinquishing goal-kicking duties and general play kicking for much of the contest. He did start kicking more in the second half of that contest which was a positive sign. Has been in career best form this season with his first class ball-playing and a willingness to run the ball more adding to his already outstanding kicking and game management skills. One of only a few survivors from the 2014 premiership team and now gets one final shot at glory in Rabbitohs colours before leaving for Brisbane next year. Hard to tip for best on ground given he may still be carrying his groin injury but the $17 looks rather juicy given the quality of player he is. 

8. Mark Nicholls - $101
An underrated forward for South Sydney who is going well enough to keep Tom Burgess and Jai Arrow on the bench. Ensures his team get off to a steady start with his willingness to take the tough carries in the opening exchanges. Will reliably get through his work on Sunday night but that won't be enough to feature in Churchill discussions. 

9. Damien Cook - $15
Ultra consistent number nine who plays at a high level week in week out. Averaging just 66 metres per game this year, Cook's running game has been a little down on previous seasons but he did look as sharp as he has in sometime in the prelim running for 100 metres for the first time since round 19. Always a danger close to the line with his pass selection often seeing his middle forwards crash over from close range. Outside of Cody Walker, looms as South Sydney's biggest attacking threat and has plenty of big game experience with 12 Origins to his name. Nice looking odds if you think his forwards can gain some ascendancy and give Cook the chance to unleash his lethal running game. 

10. Tevita Tatola - $101
Bunnies bookend who provides his side with plenty of punch running the football. Ran for 144 metres in their week one victory over the Panthers taking it up to the more fancied Panthers pack. Will be sure to churn out another strong display but not in contention for the medal. 

11. Keaon Koloamatangi - $51
Super strong forwards who's found a real home on South Sydney's left edge this season after breaking into the top grade as a middle forward last year. Big and skillful, Koloamatangi is just one of many attacking options in the Bunnies left side attack with his footwork and ability to offload. His booming presence demands plenty of attention and is an underrated reason Cody Walker and co have so much room to weave their magic out wide. Unlikely to come into contention but you couldn't rule him out completely if you think he crosses for a try or two. 

12. Jaydn Su'A - $67
Strong and aggressive back-rower set to run out for the last time in red and green before heading to the Dragons. Aggressive on both sides of the ball, Su'A is capable of exploding onto a short ball and loves to get up and intimidate with his ability to pull off a big hit in defence. Like his second-row partner, unlikely to figure unless he crosses the stripe.

13. Cameron Murray - $11
Comes into the Grand Final on the back of another stellar season where he's been among the Rabbitohs most consistent performers. Punches well above his weight playing through the middle on a weekly basis. Plays smart using his footwork to get in between defenders when running the footy whilst doubling as South Sydney's link man for halves Walker and Reynolds. Was instrumental in last week's fast start against Manly popping offloads inside the Sea Eagles half to generate second phase play leading to his team unleashing their attack out wide. One of the best on ground in the prelim with 195 metres, 5 tackle busts, 3 offloads and 35 tackles. In top form and looks a ripping chance at double figure odds.
 
Interchange - Souths' have named an unchanged four-man bench of Benji Marshall, Jacob Host, Tom Burgess and Jai Arrow. Hard to see any of the four challenging for the medal due to a lack of game time, but if I had to single out one it would be Jai Arrow at $67. The Maroons forward works hard through the middle and has the required aggression needed to try and unsettle the Panthers ruthless pack.

Rick's picks

TOP PICKS
Panthers: Nathan Cleary 
Rabbitohs: Cameron Murray 

BEST VALUE
Panthers: Isaah Yeo 
Rabbitohs: Damien Cook

BEST ROUGHIE 
Panthers: Brian To'o
Rabbitohs: Blake Taaffe

Previous winners by position 

Fullback - 6: Robbie O'Davis (Knights) 1997, Darren Lockyer (Broncos) 2000, Billy Slater (Storm) 2009 & 2017, Darius Boyd (Dragons) 2010, Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) 2020
Five-Eighth - 4: Cliff Lyons (Sea Eagles) 1987, Greg Inglis (Storm) 2007, Luke Keary (Roosters) 2018, Jack Wighton (Raiders) 2019
Halfback - 10: Peter Sterling (Eels) 1986, Ricky Stuart (Raiders) 1990, Allan Langer (Broncos) 1992, Geoff Toovey (Sea Eagles) 1996, Brett Kimmorley (Storm) 1999, Andrew Johns (Knights) 2001, Scott Prince (Tigers) 2005, Cooper Cronk (Storm) 2012, Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) 2013, Johnathan Thurston (Cowboys) 2015
Front-row - 3: Paul Dunn (Bulldogs) 1988, Willie Mason (Bulldogs) 2004, Brent Kite (Sea Eagles) 2008
Hooker - 2: Luke Priddis (Panthers) 2003, Shaun Berrigan (Broncos) 2006
Second-row - 4: David Furner (Raiders) 1994, Gorden Tallis (Broncos) 1998, Craig Fitzgibbon (Roosters) 2002, Luke Lewis (Sharks) 2016
Lock - 6: Bradley Clyde (Raiders)1989 & 1991, Brad Mackay (Dragons) 1993, Jim Dymock (Bulldogs) 1995, Glenn Stewart (Sea Eagles) 2011, Sam Burgess (Rabbitohs) 2014

No winger, centre or interchange player has won the Clive Churchill Medal.