2022 Preview: Canberra Raiders

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Our second 2022 NRL club preview looks at the shifting fortunes of the Green Machine, just three years after a surge to the Grand Final. Rob Crosby looks ahead to the Canberra Raiders' season.

Renew or rebuild.

The Canberra Raiders will head into the 2022 NRL season in search of an identity.

Having risen above a reputation as perennial under-achievers for much of the NRL era, only to fracture in spectacular fashion last year, Ricky Stuart's men will be out to pursue one of two viable options for success - a return to the form which culminated in a grand final appearance or a rebuild tailored around players untainted by the disappointment of last season.

It may seem simplistic to reduce a club's fortunes to such a binary, but when you consider that the Raiders finished outside the top eight in a year where a team could qualify for the finals with more losses than wins, it becomes clear that a repeat of last year will only result in further disappointment.

Making a number of shrewd recruitment moves headlined by Jamal Fogarty, Adam Elliott and returning junior Nick Cotric, veteran forward Iosia Soliola, one of the major drivers of cultural change at the club during Stuart's reign, will remain with the team in a welfare role after hanging up the boots following 17 seasons competing at the highest level.

Kicking off the new year with a Friday twilight clash against Cronulla at home, the Raiders will face five top eight sides twice during the home-and-away season, including fixtures in regional NSW against Manly (Mudgee), Melbourne (Wagga Wagga) and South Sydney (Dubbo).

Why they'll win it

Fielding a squad stacked with representative experience and 11 members of the 2019 grand final team, the Raiders remain one of the most formidable rosters in the league - on paper.

The return of fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will benefit the side considerably, not least in his in-game involvement, but also offering stability to one of the most important positions on the field.

Having announced a move to Parramatta for next season, former co-captain Josh Hodgson will be aiming to end his time in the nation's capital on a high, while talented forward Adam Elliott will be determined to repay the club's show of faith after grabbing a one-year lifeline.

On paper, there is plenty to like about the Green Machine. However, it remains to be seen whether last year was an anomaly or indicative of further disappointment to come.

Why they won't

The term "premiership window" regularly gets thrown around when discussing a team's chances of lifting the Provan-Summons trophy aloft on Grand Final day. Prior to last season, supporters and rivals alike had little reason to think the Raiders were anything less than premiers at best and top eight certainties at worst.

However, in light of the disappointment of last year, the Raiders will need to address a number of areas of concern to have any chance of recapturing the success of recent bygones.

Most damningly, the Raiders capitulated on more than half a dozen occasions last year after establishing healthy leads, resulting in the disparaging, yet uncomfortably apt, tag of "Faders". While it would be unfair to single the side out as the only team to suffer the misfortune of allowing match-winning leads to fade into losses, the tale of the tape shows the Raiders would have played final football with just one more win in 2021.

Additionally, the future of Jarrod Croker shapes as a potential nightmare for the club to navigate. Having built a legacy as one of Canberra's all-time greats, the point-scoring centre performed well below his best during an injury-interrupted season which resulted in a single try from 12 appearances. With a host of young guns pushing for game time, coach Stuart could be faced with an unenviable choice should his captain struggle to justify his place in first grade.

The draw - how Canberra's schedule stacks up

After starting the season at GIO Stadium for the third year in succession, the Raiders will play just a further three times on home soil prior to the Origin period.

Unlikely to be impacted by the representative season to any great extent, the middle third of the campaign could prove telling with matches against the Roosters, Broncos, Knights and Dragons providing the Green Machine with a chance to assert a place in the top eight.

Rounding out the year with three matches in the ACT during August, the Raiders will close out the regular season with a trip to Leichhardt Oval in a potentially crucial fixture.

Key player

The transformations of Jack Wighton and Josh Papalii undoubtedly played a monumental role in the Raiders ascendance from also-rans to premiership contenders, however, in his absence for much of last season, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad proved to be a figure of similar impact.

Initially signed from the Warriors as a largely anonymous outside back, the triple barrel threat cemented a place among the finest fullbacks in the league with a 66% success rate during the 2019-20 seasons.

Succumbing to a serious neck injury during the early rounds of 2021, the New Zealand international spent four months on the sidelines as a host of replacements struggled to find footing in the number one jersey.

Eyeing off a fulltime return to the custodian role after returning for the final rounds predominantly off the bench, a fit and firing Nicoll-Klokstad will give the Raiders a much needed injection of consistency from the back of the field.

Rookie to watch

Regarded among the best young outside backs coming through the ranks at Canberra, Xavier Savage will be hoping to lock down a regular place in first grade after a promising introduction last season. Gaining a bizarre initiation to the NRL, subsequently expunged from official records, as an illegitimate 18th man in Wollongong, the Cairns native garnered plenty of plaudits for his efforts at fullback against Manly and Cronulla. Capable of playing across the backline as required, Savage will have no shortage of competition from the likes of Seb Kris and Matt Timoko, but will rate his chances of making a mark when an opportunity arises in first grade.

Player movements

Inbound: Nick Cotric, Adam Elliott (Canterbury), Jamal Fogarty (Gold Coast), Peter Hola (North Queensland)

Outbound: Siliva Havili (South Sydney), Ryan James (Brisbane), Bailey Simonsson (Parramatta), Caleb Aekins (Leigh (UK)), Dunamis Lui (Redcliffe (QRL)), Iosia Soliola (retired)

Best 17

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Xavier Savage
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Emre Guler
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine

14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Adam Elliott

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