The Crystal Ball: 2022 NRL Season Predictions

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A new rugby league season approaches and with it renewed optimism among all 16 NRL clubs that this will be their year.

2022 shapes as one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory with the on-going effects of the pandemic set to upend teams and put depth to the test like never before.

Can Penrith retain their crown? Which team will undergo the greatest transformation? Will an active recruitment drive save Canterbury-Bankstown from another wooden spoon?

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16. North Queensland

There are individual stars within the Cowboys ranks that rate among the brightest in the league, yet as a team there is an imbalance that cannot be overlooked. Coach Todd Payten has staked his reputation on ensuring Jason Taumalolo lasts the duration of his contract, but if results don't improve the former Warriors caretaker may be out of a job before the season's end.

Crystal Ball: Valentine Holmes becomes a casualty of the side's poor start to the year by being overlooked for State of Origin selection.

15. St George Illawarra

The Dragons have been depressingly predictable over the past decade and for all the moneyball signings made under Anthony Griffin's watch, it's hard to see anything other than more of the same playing out. Having knocked back an offer to join the Red V previously, Moses Suli could develop into a powerhouse if given the chance to cement a place in the centres.

Crystal Ball: Jack Bird goes from Origin contention to reserve grade after signing with a rival club for 2023.

14. Canterbury-Bankstown

On paper, the Bulldogs have more than enough talent to avoid the wooden spoon, but without a recognised halfback the side can aspire to little more. Handing several players one-year lifelines to prove their worth, look for little-known prop Max King to build on strong trial form and earn an extended deal.

Crystal Ball: Josh Addo-Carr struggles to find the try line with fewer than ten tries all year.

13. Warriors

The Warriors undoubtedly have the personnel to challenge for the top four, but after three straight years playing away from home their resolve to compete for 80 minutes may be waning. Cruelled by the barest of margins on a number of occasions last season, Shaun Johnson's return will make a difference in turning narrow losses into wins.

Crystal Ball: Jesse Arthars enjoys a career-best season and remains with the club beyond his loan deal.

12. Wests Tigers

Beginning 2022 in a much better position than their ignominious finish to 2021, the Wests Tigers will need a strong start for their own confidence and to keep the decriers sharpening the knives for Michael Maguire at bay. Welcoming back Jackson Hastings from a successful stint in the English Super League, look for the matured playmaker to shine in his second coming down under.

Crystal Ball: Adam Doueihi's return from injury forces the club to make a big call on Luke Brooks.

11. Gold Coast

Set to field one of the greenest spines seen in first grade for some time, the Titans will need their marquee men to deliver to have any chance of featuring in back-to-back finals series. Finishing last season ahead of David Fifita in the starting side, don't be surprised to hear Beau Fermor's name touted as a dark horse come Origin time.

Crystal Ball: The Titans win just three matches all year by eight points or less.

10. Brisbane

While their form during the pre-season has presented more questions than answers, the arrival of Adam Reynolds should give the Broncos a sorely-needed injection of experience, leadership and direction on-and-off the field. Using more players in first grade than any other club last year, coach Kevin Walters will need to pick and stick to have a serious chance of challenging for the finals.

Crystal Ball: Kotoni Staggs earns a place in Australia's World Cup squad after being overlooked by NSW selectors.

9. Canberra

Starting last year as heavyweights only to miss the finals in a season that required fewer wins than losses to make the eight, the Raiders will need to thread the selection balance between stars of the future and club legends. Having spent most of last season sidelined with a neck injury, the return of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will be a massive boon for a side that struggled for consistency at fullback in 2021.

Crystal Ball: Nick Cotric bounces back in familiar surroundings with 15 tries.

8. Newcastle

A top eight finish may be overly ambitious given the calibre of players lost over the off-season, yet it is hard to write off any side with a forward pack as formidable and a fullback as captivating - as is the case with the Knights. Joining the club with little fanfare after rising through the grades at St George Illawarra, Adam Clune could be one of the buys of the year if his form in the number seven jersey during the trials is an indication of things to come.

Crystal Ball: David Klemmer cements his place back in the starting side with 150 running metres on average.

7. Cronulla

Every year there are one or two teams that move in and out of the top eight as part of the NRL shuffle - plenty of pundits are backing the Cronulla Sharks to meet that description in 2022. Making big moves in the player market and elevating highly sought assistant Craig Fitzgibbon to the top job, the boys in the black, white and blue should get a massive lift from returning to their true home ground.

Crystal Ball: Matt Moylan elects to end his NRL career midway through the year due to declining performances.

6. South Sydney

The Rabbitohs have the class to compete without Adam Reynolds, but without an established replacement in the number seven jersey it's hard to see the side getting anywhere close to a grand final appearance. Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker will continue to thrive in conditions that play to their attacking strengths, however it remains to be seen how the side fares in defence-oriented contests.

Crystal Ball: Jason Demetriou struggles to settle on a consistent playmaker with Lachlan Ilias, Dean Hawkins, Blake Taaffe and a mid-season signing all spending time at halfback.

5. Manly

It seems reductive to pin the hopes of a team on a single player, but much like his forebears in Andrew Johns and Johnathan Thurston, the Sea Eagles chances will live or die on Tom Trbojevic remaining injury-free. Managing to retain the bulk of their squad while adding promising Queenslander Ethan Bullemor up front, coach Des Hasler will be hoping to dispel the notion of Manly as flat-track bullies by instilling a tougher defensive edge.

Crystal Ball: The Sea Eagles attract a home crowd nearing 20,000 late in the season against one of their former grand final foes.

4. Sydney

Welcoming back a host of stars while reaping the benefits of youngsters newly versed in the rigours of first grade, the league's oldest club will be raring to go under the watch of newly re-signed coach Trent Robinson. Buoyed by the return of star half Luke Keary from an ACL injury, the three-time premiership winner could add a fourth title to his name should the injury gods show mercy on the Roosters ranks.

Crystal Ball: Lachlan Lam seeks a mid-season release following limited opportunities in the top grade.

3. Parramatta

If the Parramatta Eels are to ever win a grand final under Brad Arthur, 2022 shapes as the last chance to make good on that promise. Promising plenty only to bow out in the semi finals three years running, the blue and golds will be banking on early season scalps to establish their credentials as heavyweights of the league.

Crystal Ball: Sean Russell becomes a regular fixture in the backline with ten tries in as many rounds.

2. Penrith

Any team boasting the likes of Cleary, Yeo and Fisher-Harris has far too much class to be anything less than premiership contenders. In saying that, the biggest challenge for the Panthers will be accounting for the depth lost by a number of underrated players moving on in the wake of last year's grand final success.

Crystal Ball: Mitch Kenny finishes the year as the reigning premier's starting hooker.

1. Melbourne

The Melbourne Storm under Craig Bellamy are not merely the best team of the NRL era, but among the greatest to ever grace a rugby league field. Having achieved so much in 2021 only to come up short one week out from the decider, you can rest assured that the men from Melbourne will make amends by sending the Bromwich brothers, Felise Kaufusi and Brandon Smith out with a grand final victory.

Crystal Ball: Xavier Coates justifies his move south as the league's leading try-scorer.

How it all finishes

NRL Premiers: Melbourne Storm

Top Point Scorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen

Top Try Scorer: Xavier Coates

State of Origin: NSW (2-1)

World Cup: Australia

Most Improved: Josh King / Adam Clune

Best Signing: Moses Suli

Rookie of the Year: Xavier Savage / Jack Howarth