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Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers Sunday 4:05pm at McDonald Jones Stadium, New Lambton / Awabakal

Mystery over Penrith's Origin stars as Newcastle target season-defining win

If the Knights are going to kickstart a mid-season resurgence and push for a top-eight spot, this is the week to do it coming.

Newcastle is coming off an unconvincing win over the lowly Warriors, who themselves have hardly proven to be a genuine finals threat this year.

In the Panthers, understrength or not, the Knights will get a real sense of just how far off they are.

The last time these two sides met it was viewed as a true litmus test for Newcastle after a surprisingly strong start to the season.

Since that defeat though, the Knights have fallen away and looked closer to the bottom-four team many expected heading into the 2022 season.

Newcastle has named all of its Origin representatives to back up on Sunday, although Tex Hoy is in the extended squad should Kalyn Ponga fail to recover in time.

The Panthers have also named their Origin contingent to suit up on Sunday, although that will not mean much until teams are finalised closer to the date.

Even if Penrith's Blues contingent are a late scratching, Ivan Cleary will be confident of getting the job done after getting past a tricky Bulldogs side 30-18 last week.

The 12-point win flattered the Bulldogs in some ways and undersold just how in-sync the Panthers were despite the changes, with a few late tries overruled by the match officials.

Regardless, Kurt Falls and Sean O'Sullivan transferred their strong combination from NSW Cup straight into first grade and steered the side around perfectly.

They may once again be called on to do the same against Newcastle, with Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary the most likely to be rested for Sunday's game.

Even if Cleary and Luai were not to play, even having Isaah Yeo back up would be a big boost for the Panthers given his ball-playing through the middle frees up time and space for the Penrith halves.

Last meeting: Round 3 2022 - Panthers 38 Knights 20

Who to watch: Penrith may seem like an unstoppable juggernaut at the moment but Parramatta showed that last year's premiers are in fact beatable. You have to grind away for 65-70 minutes before striking late. If the Knights are to do that, prop David Klemmer shapes as a key figure in what could be a season-defining upset on Sunday. Klemmer, like Parramatta's forwards, has the ability to sneak out a late offload that can disrupt Penrith's brick wall defence. The 28-year-old could feel hard done by to miss out on an Origin spot and has been one of Newcastle's best this season on a consistent basis. Look for Klemmer to set the tone early and take it to Penrith's fearsome front rowers James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota.

For the Panthers, Nathan Cleary was unavailable the last time they faced the Knights. While he still may be a late scratching before Sunday, should he play, put Cleary down for a try. The Panthers halfback has been building towards it for a few weeks now - and I don't just mean a regulation try backing up in support after a linebreak. Coming off shoulder surgery in the off-season, Cleary has slowly been building his confidence to dig into the line again and take on the opposition defence. He did it on numerous occasions against the Cowboys. While it did not lead to points, North Queensland's defence is one of the best in the league. The same can't be said for the Knights. Should Cleary back up, look for him to put his stamp on the game before earning an early rest.

The favourite: As currently named, Penrith are strong favourites.

My tip: Should Penrith's Origin stars be a late scratching, this shapes as a danger game as Newcastle has plenty more to prove. At the moment though this tip can only be based on the sides named and if that is the case, it is the Panthers comfortably. Panthers by 24.

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Edrick Lee 3. Dane Gagai 4. Enari Tuala 5. Dominic Young 6. Anthony Milford 7. Jake Clifford 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Jacob Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Mitchell Barnett 14. Kurt Mann 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Leo Thompson 17. Mathew Croker 18. Pasami Saulo

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Taylan May 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 16. Matt Eisenhuth 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 17. Jaeman Salmon 22. Spencer Leniu 18. Robert Jennings

Referees: Ben Cummins; Sideline Officials: Jon Stone, Liam Kennedy; Video Referees: Gerard Sutton;