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Newcastle Knights v Warriors Sunday 6:15pm at McDonald Jones Stadium, New Lambton / Awabakal

Big improvers of 2023 to do battle in Newcastle

It's certainly fair to say that neither the Newcastle Knights nor the New Zealand Warriors had much expectation about them heading into season 2023, both tipped to be in and around the bottom 4 of the ladder. 

Through the first five rounds of the competition, both sides have done just about as much as they possibly could to disprove this notion, and their respective round 5 performances encapsulate all that has been great about the perennial strugglers so far.

The Knights, going into their game against Manly as heavy outsiders, fell to a 10-0 deficit inside 8 minutes. There is no question that the Knights of old fall into a heap and lose by 30, but this group were able to fight back and take a first half lead on their way to a gritty 90-minute draw.

The Warriors are coming off what many are calling their greatest win in the 29-year history of the club. They were down 20 to zip inside 18 minutes and were demonstrating extreme defensive inefficiency on their edges but were able to peg the deficit back to 14 at halftime and make adjustments during the break that put them in a position to win it in the last-minute courtesy of a Shaun Johnson penalty goal. 

Considering how similar the Knights and Warriors seasons have been so far, and how they each came back against quality opposition last start, it's fitting they should both meet this round. While they have both been impressive, neither have been able to produce a solid 80-minute performance yet. 

The fact both sides conceded 30+ suggests defence will be a strong point of emphasis for both coaches at training, setting up a low scoring, grind style match. However, it could just as easily be a shootout with both teams mirroring their round 5 performances. Newcastle and the Warriors have shown they can compete in both game types, so the one thing you can be relatively sure of is it'll be close, be it an 8-6 or 38-36 final scoreline.

In team news, Tyson Gamble is out with a concussion for the Knights, replaced at five-eighth by Phoenix Crossland. Kurt Mann returns as the bench utility in the only other change from the side that went the distance against Manly.

For the Warriors, Te-Maire Martin is back from injury and resumes his place at five-eighth, replacing Ronald Volkman, while Bayley Sironen starts in the back-row for the suspended Marata Niukore. Tohu Harris has been named to return from a knee injury, pushing Jazz Tevaga back to the bench.

Last meeting: Round 1 2023 - Warriors 20 Knights 12

Who to watch: It has been a running joke amongst Rugby League fans that Dane Gagai has two versions of himself - an average one that takes the field for his club and an elite one that takes the field in origin. This simply hasn't been the case recently; he was a crucial part of the Rabbitohs recent grand final appearance and so far in 2023 it isn't an exaggeration to say he's been the best centre in the competition. Two weeks ago against Canberra he embarrassed young Harley Smith-Shields and recently did the same to Manly's outside backs, running 18 times for 214 metres while also notching up 2 line break assists, a try assist and a whopping 11 tackle breaks, the latter should be setting off alarm bells in Andrew Webster's head considering how poor the Warriors edge defence was in the opening 20 minutes last week. Overall this season he has been great defensively, making 70 tackles and only missing 7, but 5 of those misses did come last week, which is something he will no doubt be keen to clean up against a threatening Warriors attack.

I honestly forgot that Dane Gagai was even a thing tonight. Lift, son! You're wearing maroon. #QLDER #Origin pic.twitter.com/PweSVT3734
— Slatts (@trentslatts) June 23, 2019

The Warriors have one of if not the best benches in the NRL, and a big reason for that is having the luxury of playing Jazz Tevaga as an impact player. Tevaga's work and value to his team can be underappreciated in the media considering he plays in a different country, which is especially unfair when you look at performances like the one he had last week and realise they are a regular occurrence. He had 17 runs for 156 metres against Cronulla as well as 3 tackle breaks, playing a huge role in gaining momentum for the Warriors towards the end of the game, while also immense in defence making 41 tackles and only missing 1. Perhaps the most important part of Tevaga's game for the Warriors going forward is his ability to minimise the loss felt when Tohu Harris goes to the bench. While he doesn't have the same passing game as Harris, Tevaga can be just as impactful running the ball and brings an energy that ensures his side doesn't lose a step when their skipper has a rest.

The favourite: The Warriors are 1.5 point favourites at the time of writing.

My tip: This is a contender for the match of the round this week, which in itself says a lot about where these teams are at the moment. Warriors by 4 in another classic.

1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Phoenix Crossland 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 16. Mathew Croker 14. Kurt Mann 13. Jack Johns 15. Jack Hetherington 17. Brodie Jones 19. Dylan Lucas

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Edward Kosi 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 15. Josh Curran 16. Jazz Tevaga 12. Bayley Sironen 14. Dylan Walker 17. Tom Ale 20. Taine Tuaupiki 23. Demitric Sifakula

Referees: Liam Kennedy; Sideline Officials: Drew Oultram, Damian Brady; Video Referees: Adam Gee;