Knights v Raiders preview

Embed from Getty Images

Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders Sunday 4:05pm at McDonald Jones Stadium, New Lambton / Awabakal

Seventeen years in the making for Newcastle

The Newcastle Knights will be looking to create history on Sunday afternoon when they host an elimination final against the Canberra Raiders at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Hosting their first final on home soil since the twilight of Andrew Johns' career in 2006, the Newcastle Knights will be hoping to record their tenth consecutive win, surpassing the record set by the Malcolm Reilly coached side back in 1995.

Coming into September as arguably the form team of the premiership, coach Adam O'Brien will welcome back all the players rested from last week's 32-12 win over the Dragons, along with halfback Jackson Hastings following three weeks on the sidelines with a lower leg injury.

Holding a strong record over the Raiders with five wins from seven matches since O'Brien took charge in 2020, the Knights have impressed with a 75 per cent success rate at home this season. Winning 13 out of 29 finals matches dating back to 1992 - including three of the five finals contested in Newcastle previously - the Knights have lost all three finals played under O'Brien during the COVID-impacted years. 

Going from top four contenders to barely scraping into the finals in eighth position over the past two months, the Canberra Raiders will need to stage an ambush for the ages to have any chance of progressing beyond Sunday evening.

Qualifying for the finals in dismal form with two uninspiring wins over the Tigers and Bulldogs from their last seven matches, coach Ricky Stuart has been forced to reshuffle his squad after Sebastian Kris was sent-off and suspended in the wake of last Sunday's 24-6 loss to the Sharks. James Schiller will start on the wing for only his fourth game for the season, while Hohepa Puru has been named at lock forward after being elevated into the starting side for his debut last week.

Holding a near average form line in finals football with 26 wins from 54 appearances since 1987, the Raiders have never been eliminated in the first week of the finals since the revised top eight system was implemented in 2012.

Boasting an optimistic record in Newcastle with three wins and a draw from six visits during Stuart's decade at the helm, the Raiders hold a 50 per cent record in away matches this season.

Last meeting: Round 22 2023 - Raiders 6 Knights 28

Who to watch: Lining up for the 15th time in finals football to stand as Newcastle's most experienced campaigner, the Knights will be looking for Dane Gagai to deliver on his reputation as a big game player. Returning to the line-up after resting up last weekend, the 32-year-old will play a vital role in getting the Knights on the front foot by taking runs early in sets as part of a lethal back five yardage strategy that has been instrumental to the side's recent success. Electing to leave Newcastle during the club's lean years in the hopes of winning a premiership with South Sydney, the prodigal centre's return may be the game-breaking difference needed for the Knights to achieve their first finals win in a decade.

Regarded as one of the most formidable forwards in the game today, Canberra will be looking for an inspirational performance from Joseph Tapine on Sunday afternoon. Tasked with the responsibility of leading a forward pack missing representative duo Josh Papalii and Corey Horsburgh, the 29-year-old New Zealander has performed solidly in 11 finals previously. Beginning his career in Newcastle before going on to become one of Canberra's best players over eight impressive seasons, the Raiders will need nothing less than excellence from Tapine to remain in the premiership race.

Favourite: The Knights will start as short-priced favourites off the back of nine straight wins leading in September.

My tip:  Few teams have ridden a wave of momentum leading into the finals quite like the Newcastle Knights. Playing with momentum and the support of an entire community behind them, Sunday shapes as a day that will live long in the history of the club. Knights by 14.

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Kurt Mann 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mathew Croker 20. Dylan Lucas

1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Jack Wighton 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Nick Cotric 6. Matt Frawley 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Ata Mariota 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hohepa Puru 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Trey Mooney 19. Albert Hopoate

Referees: Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Liam Kennedy, Jon Stone; Video Referees: Adam Gee;