2024 Preview: North Queensland Cowboys

Embed from Getty Images

Andrew Jackson assesses the year ahead for Todd Payten's North Queensland Cowboys.

A sudden surge to the top four - and within one game of the grand final - brought renewed optimism in North Queensland heading into the 2023 season.

Along with it though also came higher expectations.

Given the trajectory the Cowboys seemed to be on prior to 2022, an 11th place finish would have been a pass mark of sorts for a North Queensland team still trying to find its identity.

But the club's big leap the year prior meant that such a step backwards was jarring, at one point calling into question Todd Payten's credentials as head coach - having only just been named Dally M Coach of the Year in 2022.

That in itself was proof of how quickly things can change, with the Cowboys missing out on the finals entirely as a crushing 44-12 loss to Penrith brought an end to a disappointing 2023 campaign.

Now, with Tom Dearden and Reuben Cotter installed as new club co-captains, the Cowboys will look to work their way back to the position they found themselves in just a few seasons ago.

Why they'll win it

This is still, on paper, one of the more well-balanced teams in the competition.

Scott Drinkwater adds an extra dimension to the attack as a ball-playing option out the back while Murray Taualagi proved tough to take down in space and hard to stop close to the line.

Valentine Holmes, meanwhile, is one of the most polished centres in the game.

Chad Townsend's experience helped ease the pressure on Dearden to perform right away, freeing the Queensland Origin representative to back his running game more.

Up front, unlocking Jason Taumalolo's potential remains the key but Coen Hess rediscovered some of his best form in the front row while Reece Robson emerged as one of the league's most dynamic rakes.

Add in Jeremiah Nanai and Heilum Luki and the Cowboys have an explosive second row that is already producing now and will be even better into the future.

Cotter is the tireless workhorse any forward pack needs with the leg drive to keep the metres pumping after contact.

The ingredients are all there for the Cowboys to make some noise again, it just largely depends both on their attitude in defence and how coach Payten uses them.

Why they won't

While signing an experienced halfback like Townsend was a good call to help ease the burden on Dearden to produce immediately the Cowboys look to be in a similar position to the one the Panthers found themselves in with James Maloney and Nathan Cleary.

Only once Maloney moved on did Cleary really start to come into his own and Dearden looks ready to make a similar step this year, with his co-captaincy nod proof of his growing influence.

If the Cowboys struggle early in the season they may be better served giving Jake Clifford a run in the halves as opposed to expecting different results from the Townsend-Dearden combination.

It may not be a clean change - at least right away - given Clifford isn't the same natural game manager that Townsend is.

But he has the speed and running game to threaten the line and pose more questions in attack.

Coincidentally, James Maloney has joined the Cowboys as an assistant coach specializing in attack so he will be particularly valuable for someone like Dearden given his experience guiding Cleary in the early stages of his NRL career.

Player movements

Key player

Again, much of North Queensland's success will hinge on whether Payten can find a way to get the most out of Taumalolo, who had injury-interrupted 2021 and 2023 seasons.

Relinquishing the captaincy could help Taumalolo purely focus on his game after averaging the fewest running metres of his career since 2013, when he was only playing 40 minutes per game.

Now, the important context here is that Taumalolo also saw his average minutes last season dip to 48 minutes - the lowest in his career since, you guessed it, 2013.

There was long an argument that Taumalolo needs to be on the field as much as possible, not to benefit North Queensland specifically, but to justify his price tag.

It is an argument devoid of any logic given the fact it really doesn't matter how many minutes Taumalolo is playing if he isn't having the required impact on the game at hand.

Easing Taumalolo's workload to increase his efficiency may well be smart, especially as he prepares to enter his 15th season since making his debut in the NRL.

It can be easy to forget Taumalolo is now 30 years old given how explosive he can still be with the ball in hand and a permanent shift to the front row, where the ball-playing can be a bonus as opposed as the expectation, could benefit him.

Breakthrough players

There are a few spots up for grabs in the backline, with Peta Hiku's departure opening up a vacancy at centre while Kyle Feldt's declining form casts doubt over his staying power.

It could open up the potential for Zac Laybutt to build on an impressive start to his rookie season, averaging 120 metres to go with three tries, nine tackle busts and a pair of linebreaks in four games.

Elsewhere, while exposed at times in defence, Semi Valemei was electric in attack when given an opportunity to impress on the wing as Feldt found himself on the outer at North Queensland.

Robert Derby also has just the one NRL game but may be worth backing from the start given we already know who Valemei is - a strong ball-runner with suspect defensive decision-making.

It will be interesting to see where Payten leans with Viliami Vailea another option in the centres.

Meanwhile, Heilum Luki has flashed his incredible athleticism since making his debut in the NRL but a string of injuries, including an ACL tear last year, has limited his chances to really stamp his authority.

Luki though appears locked into a starting spot in the second row and along with the already established Nanai would give North Queensland two potent weapons on the both edges.

Kulikefu Finefeuiaki also shapes as the most likely player to benefit from Luciano Leilua's potential exit from the Cowboys after the second rower reportedly requested an immediate release.

Predicted 17

1. Scott Drinkwater
2. Robert Derby
3. Zac Laybutt
4. Valentine Holmes
5. Murray Taulagi

6. Tom Dearden
7. Chad Townsend

8. Jason Taumalolo
9. Reece Robson
10. Coen Hess
11. Heilum Luki
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange: 14. Tom Chester 15. Griffin Neame 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Jordan McLean

2024 fixture list

All times Townsville local (AEST)