PREVIEW: 2024 State of Origin III

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Queensland v New South Wales Wednesday 8:05pm at Suncorp Stadium, Milton / Yuggera-Turrbal

A rather topsy-turvey Origin series will be decided on Wednesday night at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, when New South Wales takes on Queensland.

Queensland dominated a 12-man Blues side in Game I, winning 38-10 after Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'I was sent off very early in the match. In Game II, New South Wales turned the tables with arguably the most perfect first half in Origin history, as they raced out to a 34-0 lead. Queensland fought back in the second half but the task was too great as they lost 38-18.

When it comes to Game 3 deciders, Queensland absolutely dominate the Blues, winning 15 of the 22 occasions, 2 other occasions were draws which resulted in Queensland retaining the shield, while New South Wales has won just 5 deciders.

The injured Latrell Mitchell has been replaced by 2023 Blues Origin centre Bradman Best, while extended bench player from the first two games, Mitch Barnett has been brought onto the bench to make his Origin debut, replacing Haumole Olakau'atu.

For the Maroons, a number of changes have been made. Jaydn Su'A, Murray Taulagi and Xavier Coates all set to miss the decider. This see's Selwyn Cobbo getting a call up to replace Taulagi on the wing, Dane Gagai will line up at centre to replace Coates, Kurt Capewell moves from the bench into the run-on side to replace Su'A. Capewell's place on the bench has been filled by Kalyn Ponga.

The Maroons bench is smaller than the Blues, with Moeaki Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi as the only forwards on the bench, which will place a lot of extra work on the Maroons middle forwards.

The Blues have less versatility on their bench, running with just one genuine prop in Spencer Leniu, however Isaah Yeo is capable of playing as a front rower if needed. If the Blues have an injury in their spine or backline, there may be a few players getting shuffled about which is never great to a teams defensive cohesion, especially in Origin.

Both teams are very strong on the edge of the ruck and that is precisely where much of this game will be played for both outfits. Holmes shifting to the wing from centre is a good move, as he was outmuscled frequently by Mitchell in Game II and with Best playing a power game, he may have had similar success against him.

Last meeting: Series 2024 - NSW 38 QLD 18

Players to watch: Jake Trbojevic hasn't played many minutes in either game, and with little in the way of middle forwards to rotate with on the bench, he really needs to provide more minutes and for those minutes to be powerful.

Dane Gagai is a modern-day Dale Shearer - club form means zero, put a Maroon jumper on him, put him anywhere in the backline and he'll deliver a brilliant performance every time.

He will be featured in many Queensland attacking raids. Mitch Moses had a glorious match in Game II and all eyes will be on him to see if he can repeat that performance here.

Kalyn Ponga is a genuine x-factor on the Maroon's bench. How, when and where he will be used is a mystery, but what isn't a mystery is his ability to turn a game on its head.

Favourite: New South Wales will likely be the favourite coming into this game due to their complete dominance of the Maroons in Game 2. Game 1 is less of a guide given so much of the contest saw Queensland have an extra player. Home ground advantage and history is hugely on Queensland's side.

My Tip: This will be a very close game. It's an absolute coin toss here. But it's hard to go past the Blues on form. NSW by 1.

1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Dane Gagai 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 14. Harry Grant 16. Felise Kaufusi 8. Reuben Cotter 11. Kurt Capewell 13. Patrick Carrigan 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 12. Jeremiah Nanai 17. Kalyn Ponga 18. Trent Loiero

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Matt Burton

Referees: Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Dave Munro, Chris Sutton; Video Referees: Grant Atkins;