Dragons v Raiders preview

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St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders Saturday 3:00pm at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Carlton / Bidjigal

It's still mathematical - which is never a good sign

Both the Dragons and Raiders come into this match holding a very slender mathematical chance of finishing 8th. While there's 4 teams all on 28 competition points on the NRL ladder, only 1 will reach the finals. And as luck would have it, this final Round will almost serve as a play-off for that final place in the NRL finals.

The final four sides are the 8th placed Dolphins and 9th placed Knights, who will play the final match of the Round that will ultimately determine who makes the finals. The 10th placed Dragons and 11th placed Raiders are the other two sides, both needing a victory here and a draw between the Dolphins and Knights in order to finish 8th.

The Dragons come into this match with their defence in atrocious form for a top 8 aspirant. In their last 8 games they've conceded 256 points - 32 points per game - for some perspective, the Wests Tigers last 8 games has seen them concede just 36 points more. This issue is the entirety of the reason why the Dragons have fallen out of finals contention so swiftly. After the Dragons beat the Dolphins in Round 17, they moved into 8th place and had a points difference of just -30 - 8 games later and they've dropped to 10th and their points difference has ballooned out to -124. It's been a miserable way to drop out of contention.

The Raiders have been in markedly better form in recent weeks, but have come from too far back to be able to make up the ground lost earlier in the season. They've won 4 of their last 7 games, including back-to-back victories against top 4 sides Penrith and the Roosters. The Raiders though have yet to string together 3 strong performances this year and while their defence has been improved on last season, and is better than the Dragons, their attack has been inconsistent and less potent.

The Dragons come into this match without powerhouse winger Mikaele Ravalawa and edge forward Ryan Couchman. However they will see Moses Suli return to centre, which will push Mathew Feagai to the vacant wing. Lyhkan King-Togia has been promoted from bench to five-eighth which pushes Jack Bird into the centres and Max Feagai drops out of the 17. Hooker Jacob Liddle returns, with his replacement Connor Muhleisen shifting to the bench. Blake Lawrie also returns and will come off the bench.

The Raiders also have a raft of changes. Fullback Jordan Rapana will be replaced by five-eighth Kaeo Weekes. Elliott Whitehead is also not available for this game. Ethan Strange comes in at five-eighth, Jamal Fogarty returns, replacing Adam Cook. Trey Mooney also comes in to take up a place on the bench. Corey Horsburgh will go from prop to bench, switching with Josh Papalii. Danny Levi will shift from hooker to the bench, switching with Tom Starling. Simi Sasagi will fill the vacant back row slot.

Last meeting: Round 19 2023 - Dragons 26 Raiders 36

Who to watch: Speedster Kaeo Weekes at fullback, could be a revelation. He's got good ball-playing skills and immense pace. Zac Lomax has been impressive all year for the Dragons and there's nothing to suggest he won't continue being their best target in attack.

FAVOURITE: Toss a coin. The Dragons will likely be considered the favourites due to being at home and ever so slightly better. There's so very little between these sides though.

MY TIP: The Dragons have a rather woeful record when it comes to end-of-season games. Their defence of late has also been trash. Raiders by 14.

1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 20. Savelio Tamale 5. Mathew Feagai 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Connor Muhleisen 15. Toby Couchman 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 18. Hamish Stewart

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 15. Corey Horsburgh 14. Danny Levi 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Simi Sasagi 13. Morgan Smithies 8. Josh Papali'i 15. Tom Starling 16. Ata Mariota 17. Trey Mooney 18. James Schiller

Referees: Wyatt Raymond; Sideline Officials: David Munro, Phil Henderson; Video Referees: Ashley Klein;