Fixture This: the 2025 NRL draw breakdown

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Andrew Ferguson breaks down the 2025 draw and who *really* has the hardest and easiest slog next season.

Click here to view the 2025 NRL Draw in full.

Its that time of year again where the NRL draw is released and ever pundit tells us again why Canberra have the hardest draw. In recent times the nonsense has been next level as some journalists used the total distance travelled, or not travelled, to solely determine who had the hardest or softest draw.

This year I've devised a simple system which is based on logic, strength of opponents, frequency of games played against top sides and - just for fun - how many times they've had to leave their city and state to get to a game, all to determine who has the hardest draw.

First of all, each team has been given a score, based on their ladder position at the end of last season. Teams 9 to 17 are unchanged. The top 8 changes slightly though based on when teams exited the finals.

So the top 8 are ranked accordingly (the number in brackets is their actual ladder position at the end of the regular season, but is otherwise irrelevant to this system)

1. Penrith (2)
2. Melbourne (1)
3. Sydney (3)
4. Cronulla (4)
5. North Qld (5)
6. Manly (7)
7. Canterbury (6)
8. Newcastle (8)

So then every teams draw is calculated thus, if you play the team ranked third twice, then we multiply the rank (3), by the number of times they played that team (two) - thus, 3 x 2 = 6. We do this throughout the whole draw.

The hardest possible draw would produce a score of 172 (playing all top 8 sides twice and all remaining sides from 9th to 16th once) and the easiest possible draw would score 260 (playing all teams from 10th to 17th twice and all teams from 2nd to 9th once). 

So lets get to it. Using the ladder ranking system alone, the order for hardest to easiest draw is as follows:

Souths 187
Parramatta 199
Cronulla 207
Wests Tigers 207
Brisbane 211
Melbourne 213
Sydney 213
North Qld 214
St Geo Illa 215
Gold Coast 220
Canterbury 222
Manly 223
Dolphins 223
Penrith 225
Warriors 227
Newcastle 228
Canberra 238

Souths have 8 games against the top 4 sides, the only club to play each of the top 4 sides twice. The Cowboys and Bulldogs play the top 4 sides 7 times. Meanwhile Canberra, Warriors and Titans play each top 4 sides just once. 

Parramatta, Souths and Cronulla play 13 games against top 8 sides, more than any other side. Penrith, Melbourne, Dragons, Brisbane and Wests Tigers play 12 games against top 8 sides. At the other end, Newcastle plays just 9 games against top 8 sides while Manly, Canterbury, Canberra and Warriors play 10 games against the top 8 sides.

The Warriors play the least number of games in their city with 10, while Melbourne, Titans and Canberra are next with 11. The Bulldogs are set to play 18 games in Sydney this year, with the Roosters playing 17. The Knights will play 19 games in NSW, while they will also travel to Canberra for one game, giving them the kindest draw as far as travel is concerned. Sydney, Canterbury and Parramatta will remain in NSW for 18 games, while the latter two sides will also play in Canberra once.

When these extra aspects are included, the overall list for hardest to easiest draw stands at:

Souths
Parramatta
Cronulla
Brisbane
Wests Tigers
North Qld
Sydney
St Geo Illa
Melbourne
Canterbury
Manly
Penrith
Dolphins
Gold Coast
Newcastle
Warriors
Canberra

Canberra have been handed one of the kindest draws in recent times. From Round 14 to Round 24, they have all three of their byes, 5 of their 8 games are at home, one is at Campbelltown, one in Wollongong and another in Newcastle. Three of their opponents in that period are the bottom 3 sides from 2024, they play 11th placed Dragons twice and 8th placed Knights twice and the other game is against the 6th placed Manly, in Canberra.

The Knights' opening 11 Rounds is arguably just as soft, with 1 bye, 6 games against bottom 4 sides, 1 game against a top 4 side and one other match against a top 8 side. 5 games at home and 3 others in Sydney. 

But despite the facts, we can be certain that every coach will find a way to claim that their draw is hardest. Bring on the excuses!