2025 Preview: Canberra Raiders

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Lachlan McIntyre assesses what lay ahead for the Green Machine in the 2025 NRL season.

Ricky's Raiders look for rectification after 2024's narrow finals miss

The Canberra Raiders suffered an agonising exit in 2024, falling short of finals footy based only on for and against. This will just be fuel to the fire in 2025, but significant player losses, including multiple club stalwarts, will require adjustment from both the club and their fans.

2025 will be Ricky Stuart's 11th year at the helm in Canberra and his recent contract extension until the end of 2029 shows the level of faith the club has in the Raiders legend. This level of certainty is an advantage that many clubs don't have, with the Raiders ability to stay out of the coaching merry-go-round inarguably benefiting them.

The question is whether the Raiders under Ricky Stuart can work themselves back into another premiership window. After coming heartbreakingly close to the trophy in 2019 and making a preliminary final in 2020, Canberra have been on a slide since. Returning to the finals fold in 2025 should be seen as a crucial first step in getting back to those heights before 2029, when the question of if Ricky should remain will be brought back into focus.

The arrivals of Ethan Sanders and Matty Nicholson should add to Canberra's depth, but a lack of big name signings to date suggests a lot of faith being placed in the Raider's young blood, the likes of Kaeo Weekes, Ethan Strange, and Xavier Savage. After their two trial matches, they will face their first test of the year in Las Vegas, where the green machine will face the NZ Warriors. 

Why They'll Win It

Their ability to come out on top in high intensity, grinding matches. When the match is going down to the wire, the Raiders are good at making sure they take the 2 points home. Canberra won no less than eight matches by less than four points throughout 2024, showing their grit and determination in the dying moments of matches. Winning the tight games adds up throughout the regular season, but also becomes a necessity in September footy when every game promises to be close.

Why They Won't

Defensive issues are a real area to focus on for the Raiders. There were plenty of games last season where they scored what would normally be a winning score, but still ended up losing. Of the top ten finishers in 2024, the Raiders had the highest amount of points scored against them. Results such as their 40-0 loss to Cronulla and 48-24 loss to the Tigers, as well as conceding over 40 against Manly and the Cowboys are what in the end denied them a place in the top eight. They can score plenty of points, but Canberra will need to be able to stop them in order to win the premiership.

The losses of long-time campaigners is another strike against Canberra's premiership hopes. Elliott Whitehead has over 200 NRL appearances for the Raiders, but is heading back to Super League where his career began. Also heading to the Northern Hemisphere is Jordan Rapana, who has 214 NRL appearances under his belt for Canberra. The gaps left by these two players will be filled by young, mostly untested stock, with no big name signings to plug the holes. After the losses of Croker and Wighton before 2024, this appears to signify the end of an era for the Raiders, an era which included their agonisingly close 2019 campaign.

2025 fixture list

Key Players

After making his debut in 2021, outside back Xavier Savage was quickly touted as Canberra's next big thing, and he was rewarded for strong performances with a breakout season in 2022, making 19 NRL appearances. Unfortunately he spent most of 2023 in NSW Cup, but he didn't let that get to him. Last year Savage crossed the stripe for 15 tries in first grade, and was rewarded with a spot in the PM's XIII team that traveled to Port Moresby. The now 22 year old appears to have a wing spot locked down, especially with the departure of Jordan Rapana. The club will be hoping he's able to emulate Rapana, and Savage may even get a shot at the fullback jersey if he proves himself in pre-season.

Joseph Tapine is entering his 10th season at the club, and will likely hit 200 NRL appearances for the Raiders within the first few months of 2025. The prop forward has won three straight Meninga Medals, recognising him as the club's best and fairest. Announced as the captain for 2025, Tapine has quite a bit of increased responsibility on his shoulders this season. At 30 years of age and as a Kiwi representative, Tapine is one of, if not the single most, experienced player in the Raider's 17, and how he performs as a leader in the forward pack will make a massive impact on the trajectory of the Canberra Raiders' 2025 season.

Rookie to Watch

Ethan Sanders joins the Raiders from Parramatta, getting out from behind Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses who were blocking his path to first grade. Unfortunately for the young half, he will have to contend with fellow young gun Ethan Strange for the number 6 jersey, partnering Jamal Fogarty. Since Sanders has only two NRL appearances to his name, it's likely Strange will get the first crack, but Sanders will undoubtedly get an opportunity to impress this year, and he will want to pounce on it.

Player Movements

INS: Ethan Sanders (Parramatta), Myles Martin (Newcastle), Savelio Tamale (St Geo Illa), Matty Nicholson (Warrington)

TOP 30: Albert Hopoate, Ata Mariota, Chevy Stewart, Corey Horsburgh, Corey Harawira-Naera, Danny Levi, Ethan Sanders, Ethan Strange, Hudson Young, Jamal Fogarty, Joseph Tapine, Josh Papali'i, Kaeo Weekes, Matt Timoko, Matty Nicholson, Michael Asomua, Morgan Smithies, Myles Martin, Pasami Saulo, Savelio Tamale, Sebastian Kris, Simi Sasagi, Tom Starling, Trey Mooney, Vena Patuki-Case, Xavier Savage, Zac Hosking

OUTS: Nick Cotric, Elliott Whitehead (Catalans), Hohepa Puru (Cronulla), James Schiller (Newcastle), Zac Woolford (Huddersfield), Jordan Rapana (Hull FC), Peter Hola (Norths Devils), Adrian Trevilyan (Northern Pride), Emre Guler (St George Illawarra)

DEVELOPMENT: Jake Clydesdale, Noah Martin, Owen Pattie, Joe Roddy, Peter Taateo, Manaia Waitere

Predicted 17

1. Kaeo Weekes
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Seb Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Zac Hosking
13. Morgan Smithies
    
    
14. Tom Starling
15. Corey Horsburgh
16. Ata Mariota
17. Matty Nicholson