MONDAY'S EXPERT: 2025 NRL Round 4
6 hours ago | Monday's
Expert
Redemption on both teams minds' as they head to Townsville
The North Queensland Cowboys are looking to avoid their worst start to a season in four seasons when they host the Canberra Raiders at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
Watching the Cowboys play this season has been a frustrating experience as a general observer of the game. When they get going, they are one of the most exciting teams to watch in the game. But, this year it is taking a little longer to get back to the magic of old. Three straight losses to start the year has left everyone wondering if the Todd Payten magic is running out, but there was enough fight in their loss to Brisbane to indicate they haven't thrown the towel in on their coach just yet.
To beat Canberra, they need to win the ruck. Jordan McLean and Jason Taumalolo had much needed bounceback games last Friday night and will need to go stride for stride against a full strength Raiders pack who welcome Joe Tapine back from suspension. Defensively will be a challenge as the visitors have speed advantages on the flanks.
The Cowboys need to keep the game in the train-tracks (scrum-line to scrum-line) to keep in touch as well as limit the effective kicking game of Jamal Fogarty. They remain unchanged with Viliami Vailea's eye injury the only concern for the hosts.
Canberra will have to forget two big scorelines of late, last year's hiding at the hands of the Cowboys at this ground, as well as last week's opening loss of the season to Manly. Last week was a really disappointing effort with their discipline with a 17-5 infringement count against the Raiders. That will have to rectified as the Cowboys are one of the best attacking sides with sustained possession.
To beat North Queensland, they need to look at the tape of the last few weeks. Target the edge defence. As strong as likely John Bateman has been with the ball, defensively it has been a nightmare with several bad reads (on-top of missing eight tackles last week). The shape Canberra ran over the first fortnight threw some of the strong defensive sides off and has the potential to do so here in this one. As mentioned, the visitors get Joe Tapine back from suspension. With Morgan Smithies in concussion protocols, this sees Corey Horsburgh move to lock.
Last meeting: Round 24 2024 - Cowboys 42 Raiders 4
Who to watch: After what can be considered an underwhelming start to 2025, the pressure is on Reuben Cotter to deliver. Your probably thinking that there's other guys that should be under pressure and your right, but the fact is Cotter hasn't delivered the numbers that we've seen over the last few seasons (which is a testament to his work-rate). So far, he hasn't cracked 100 metres running over the first three weeks and has missed three or more tackles in the last two matches. Watch for a bounceback game from the Cowboys co-skipper.
Kaeo Weekes had an underwhelming return to Brookvale Oval last week, unable to contest several kicks which led to the Manly avalanche of points in the first half. Weekes has normally been strong competing for the ball and being involved in games, so to see this raised some concerns. Watch for a bounce-back from the Raiders fullback as they look to forget last week's horror show on the Northern Beaches.
Favourite: Canberra open up as slight favourites although they haven't won in Townsville since 2020 and have only won in Townsville three times since 2005.
My tip: It's a hard game to tip, the Cowboys have to offer something at this point. There was enough signs there to suggest they will be competitive, but a Ricky Stuart coached side is never down for long. They also get Joe Tapine back and should have enough cattle to get over the top of the Cowboys in this one. Raiders by 12.
1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. John Bateman 12. Kai O'Donnell 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Jeremiah Nanai 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess 21. Karl Lawton
1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 16. Trey Mooney 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Matt Nicholson 13. Corey Horsburgh 8. Josh Papali'i 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 17. Ata Mariota 19. Jed Stuart
Referees: Adam Gee; Sideline Officials: Tyson Brough, Nick Pelgrave; Video Referees: Liam Kennedy;