Knights v Eels preview

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Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels Friday 6:00pm at McDonald Jones Stadium, New Lambton / Awabakal

This match has ‘anybody's guess' written all over it.

The two worst attacking teams in the competition and both sitting in the bottom 4 of the ladder. The Knights have scored 50 points in their last 2 games after having scored a paltry 36 points across their 5 games prior. Their defence had been reasonable enough and may well have helped them win some games if they could've put some scoreboard pressure on their opponents. They couldn't though, so the fact they've conceded 20 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games does look like a failure as well.

The Eels are much less muckier right now. They've conceded an average of 30.22 points per game this year, however since the return of Mitch Moses in Round 7, they've scored 72 points and conceded 70, winning 1 of 3 games. They've actually kept themselves in the last 2 matches which they lost and they will come into this contest feeling confident of victory.

Newcastle started the season with back-to-back victories against strugglers Wests Tigers and the Dolphins, before losing consecutively to the Titans, Bulldogs, Tigers, Sharks and Warriors - dropping them into the bottom 3. A commanding win against the inconsistent Souths looked to revitalize the Knights. But then the Knights threw away their match last week against the struggling Titans. They lead 20-6 at halftime, but they let in 3 converted tries, the last of which was within the final 3 minutes of the game, to lose 24-20.

The Knights are dominant when it comes to ball running and line breaking/bending stats, ranking fourth for line breaks, second for post contact metres, first for tackle breaks, second for total run metres, while also being the top ranked side for offloads. They should be scoring points easily off the back of all that fantastic work in the middle, but their discipline and variation in attack is abysmal in comparison. 

The Eels by comparison are the worst team in the competition for post contact metres, second last for tackle breaks and last for run metres. This could well mean the Knights will dominate field position all game, which will put pressure on the Eels defence. Given the Knights improved point scoring ability over the last fortnight, it could be enough to see them score enough points to get the win.

The Eels were slow out of the gate, losing their first four games of the season against the Storm, Tigers, Bulldogs and Manly. In Round 5 they scored a Golden Point victory over the Dragons, before getting flogged by the Raiders the following week. Round 7 saw the return of Moses and winning, as they beat the Tigers before losing their last 2 games, 28-18 against the Sharks and 20-16 against the Dolphins last week, despite leading by 6 points after an hour of play.

The Eels though have Mitch Moses, who knows to keep his side in a game and if the Knights attack reverts to its dire form, the Eels will be in this game for the full 80 minutes. Moses has enough class and guile to help his side to a win from that position.

Last meeting: Round 17 2024 - Knights 34 Eels 26

Who to watch: The player everyone will be watching in this game is Mitch Moses. The Eels half has been in good form and will be playing for a Blues jumper. Expect him to be everywhere and involved in everything.

On the other side of the field will be Kalyn Ponga whose form has been well down on his best so far this year. He'll be desperate to get back into the Queensland fullback jumper, which he last wore in 2022. The Knights attack will suffer immensely in this game, as they won't  be able to rely heavily on the powerful running game of their winger Greg Marzhew, who has been ruled out due to a knee injury.

Favourite: The Knights at home are the favourites here, however the Eels have won 6 of their last 7 games against the Knights and look to be improving more convincingly than the Knights are.

My tip: I'm going to find it hard to have any confidence in that Knights outfit in their current situation. Eels by 10.

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Fletcher Hunt 6. Fletcher Sharpe 19. Tyson Gamble 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Tyson Frizell 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Mathew Croker 16. Thomas Cant 17. Brodie Jones 18. Jack Hetherington 22. Paul Bryan

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Matt Doorey 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Jordan Samrani 17. Toni Mataele 18. Joash Papali'i 19. Ryan Matterson

Referees: Todd Smith; Sideline Officials: Wyatt Raymond, David Munro; Video Referees: Kasey Badger;