Warriors v Raiders preview

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Warriors v Canberra Raiders Sunday 4:05pm at Go Media Stadium, Penrose / Aotearoa

A top of the table clash with minimal impact to either sides due to State of origin - perfect!

The Warriors will be without their form prop Mitch Barnett while the Raiders will be down back rower Hudson Young due to Origin duties.

The Warriors though will come into this game without fellow prop James Fisher-Harris, due to suspension, while Jackson Ford, Edward Kosi, Ali Leiataua and Rocco Berry are all doubtful due to injury.

The Warriors have been the much more consistent defensive unit of the 2, ranking second in defence behind the top-of-the-table Bulldogs, while the Raiders rank 12th. But when it comes to attack, the Raiders are second best while the Warriors rank down in 14th. So it becomes a battle to determine which is stronger - Raiders attack or Warriors defence.

The Raiders rank second for line breaks, Warriors are equal last. The Raiders top the NRL for most Post Contact metres, the Warriors rank a respectable sixth. The Raiders top the NRL for Tackle Breaks, by a long way. The Warriors are fourth last. Raiders are ranked second for kick return metres and offloads, the Warriors are second last in both. The Raiders have almost twice as many line break assists as the Warriors.

The Warriors though are a wonderfully disciplined side, ranking first for conceding the least number of penalties, the Raiders are second last. The Warriors are equal first for least number of Handling errors, Raiders are third last. Warriors are also equal first for least number of errors, the Raiders are a respectable 7th, but there's a sizeable gap between the two sides.

Tldr; The Raiders will make big inroads through the middle and will get downfield much more easily than the Warriors will in reply. The Raiders will throw everything at the Warriors and that will see them turn the ball over a number of times, but it will also produce a number of tries.

The Raiders need to turn that field position into points, because the Warriors will not hand the ball over cheaply or easily. The Raiders defence has struggled to keep teams quiet. Just 3 times this year have they kept their opponents to a score of less than 20. 5 of their 8 victories has seen their opponent reach 20 points. Against a side that is as disciplined and defensively strong as the Warriors, conceding 20 points will almost certainly ensure a Raiders loss.

The Warriors are without their two starting props and given their struggles with making metres already this year, this will be a big headache for them in this clash. Don't be surprised if the Warriors instead opt to run slightly wider of the ruck to try and make their metres where there will be more 1-on-1 contests. Part of the reason why their error counts is so low, and their attack so much less dominant, is their reluctance to offload and resort to second phase play, which the Raiders have struggled to contain this year.

Last meeting: Round 1 2025 - Raiders 30 Warriors 8

Who to watch: Warriors half Luke Metcalf has been in very good form of late and thus, has taken the lead on the Dally M leaderboard. Raiders winger Savelio Tamale has been a real powerhouse on the wing, sitting second in the league for line breaks, fifth for post contact metres, fifth for tackle breaks and eleventh for most metres run. He's also racked up 4 tries in his last 5 games. Wayde Egan has been strong this year, especially out of dummy half in attack and even moreso defensively in the middle.

Favourite: The Warriors are the narrow favourite, on the back of their very strong recent record at home, where they've won 8 and drawn 1 of their last 12 games at Go Media Stadium, while they have won 12 of their last 17 games played in New Zealand against the Raiders.

My tip: This can go either way. The absence of Fisher-Harris and Barnett in the middle might be too much for the Warriors to overcome. Raiders by 2.

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. Jackson Ford 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jacob Laban 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Tom Ale 20. Samuel Healey 21. Tanah Boyd 22. Ali Leiataua 23. Taine Tuaupiki

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Simi Sasagi 12. Zac Hosking 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Owen Pattie 15. Noah Martin 16. Josh Papali'i 17. Ata Mariota 18. Jed Stuart 19. Trey Mooney 20. Danny Levi 21. Pasami Saulo 22. Chevy Stewart

Referees: Adam Gee; Sideline Officials: Wyatt Raymond, Michael Wise; Video Referees: Kasey Badger;