QLD v NSW preview

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Queensland v New South Wales Wednesday 8:00pm at Suncorp Stadium, Milton / Yuggera-Turrbal

Mate against Mate, State against State: Rugby League's greatest rivalry resumes for 2025

The greatest tradition in Rugby League is once again upon us. 34 of the best players the game has to offer lining up with the weight of an entire state on their shoulders. Only the true stars will shine on the games grandest stage, while those who falter even a tiny bit will be relentlessly criticised by armchair observers on Twitter.

New Blues coach Laurie Daley made his mark on the team by changing the captaincy - out is Jake Trbojevic, who will ultimately miss the game with a concussion, and in comes Panthers star Isaah Yeo, a man who has hosted four Provan-Summons trophies and will be hoping to do the same with an Origin shield in a few weeks time.

It wasn't the only change Daley made however. Jarome Luai has been left out of a Game 1 squad for the first time since 2020, the Blues instead shifting Mitchell Moses to five-eighth to complement Nathan Cleary. Most pundits expected Tigers star Terrell May to earn an Origin debut, but Daley opted against this, instead retaining Spencer Leniu despite a mixed start to the season and handing a debut to Bulldogs prop Max King. Daley did however stay loyal to Panthers stars Dylan Edwards and Brian To'o despite having missed considerable portions of the season to date with injury and their club sitting 13th on the ladder.

Queensland coach Billy Slater meanwhile adopted a selection policy of loyalty where he could, ultimately choosing only to leave out ageing veterans such as Dane Gagai, Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell. Cameron Munster is a huge in for the Maroons, having missed all of last years series due to a groin injury, while Tom Dearden's breakout campaign as his replacement saw him called up to the bench utility role due to Ben Hunt's injury. Slater surprised many by handing rookie Roosters centre Rob Toia an Origin debut, while more experienced campaigners Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero will make their maiden appearances from the interchange bench.

The Blues return to Suncorp Stadium with a pep in their step this time, having wrapped up last year's series at The Cauldron with their 14-4 win in Game 3. But the truth is that remains an outlier. The Maroons have won 6 of the last 8 Origin's played in Brisbane, and 21 of 29 in total since the stadium was rebuilt in 2003. While New South Wales proved last year they can defy history, doing it twice is a different story all together.

There's also some history to watch out for in this one: Cleary needs just 6 points to become the second Blues player to score 100 points in Origin

Last meeting: Game 3, 2024 - QLD 4 NSW 14

Who to watch: So much of Origin is about who teams have in their back lines and halves, with points at a premium and edge defences always needing to be improved. But the reality is it's won in the forwards. The side that lays the better platform will more often go onto win the game and usually the series when all is said and done. And the forward packs of both sides are star studded casts.

The Maroons have a one-two punch of Pat Carrigan and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, who between them have combined for 33 offloads and 31 tackle breaks through just 11 rounds of the NRL season. Complimenting them is the rock steady Mo Fotuaika, while the Maroons will be hoping veteran Lindsay Collins can rediscover some form he's been lacking this season when he is injected off the bench alongside debutant Loiero.

New South Wales meanwhile have the best prop in Rugby League in Payne Haas - a man who needs three players to bring him down every hit up and even then can still find an offload. Next to him is a pair of dominant middles in their own right - captain Yeo, who proved last year he can be more than just a second five-eighth at Origin level, and Mitch Barnett, who is averaging 140 metres per game despite sharing a forward pack with New Zealand star James Fisher-Harris at club level. Leniu will provide 20 minutes of unadulterated chaos when he is injected into the game, and King has proven to be a workhorse forward who will happily get his hands dirty in the middle.

Favourite: New South Wales are the favourites in this one, and you'd be tempted to back them 13+ given 7 of the last 8 Origin clashes have had a winning margin of 10 points or more.

My tip: On paper, New South Wales should easily take the cake in this one. But Origin is never fought on paper. And with a Queensland crowd roaring them on,  I'm taking the Maroons by 4 in this one.

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tom Dearden 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Beau Fermor 17. Trent Loiero 18. Kurt Mann 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Mitchell Barnett 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Max King 18. Campbell Graham 19. Stefano Utoikamanu 20. Haumole Olakau'atu

Referees: Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Dave Munro, Phil Henderson; Video Referees: Chris Butler;