Cowboys v Wests Tigers preview

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North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers Saturday 5:30pm at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville / Wulgurukaba

These two sides have a head-to-head history the defies form, trend, betting odds, crystal balls, octopus predictions, numerology, astrology and even Nostradamus himself.

Because when it comes to games between these two sides - there is one certainty - it will rain points. 30 of the last 37 games between these two sides has seen a total of at least 40 points scored in the game. 16 of those games saw at least 50 points scored in the game - that dates all the way back to 2005. The average winning score over those last 37 games is 34-16 with the Tigers winning 22 to the Cowboys 15.

The last 4 games (of which the Cowboys have won the last 3) has seen that average score be even more absurd: 57.5-19.

And this year both sides rather evenly matched when it comes to defence and attack. The Cowboys have scored 2 points more than the Tigers and conceded 20 points less - The Tigers have played 1 game more - and 1 win more. The Cowboys haven't exactly been strong at home, scoring 2 wins and 2 losses and scoring as many points as they've conceded. The Tigers have been more successful on the road than at, err, homes, winning 3 of 5 away games.

The Cowboys will be impacted by Origin disruptions while the Tigers are impacted by the Lachlan Galvin saga and the inevitable erratic form that comes from any side in a rebuild that is stacked with young players.

The Tigers are one of the top sides for Post Contact metres, while the Cowboys rank near the bottom, The Tigers are the top side when it comes to offloads, while the Cowboys are second last. This highlights the heavy reliance the Tigers place on second phase play and it has had a dramatically positive impact on their attack.

Both sides have made a similar number of tackles but the Tigers are the second worst team in the competition for missed tackles, while the Cowboys are one of the top 5 best sides in that area. The Cowboys have been the most disciplined team when it comes to giving away penalties, unlike the Tigers, which means the Tigers will be relying heavily on metres in the middle and second phase play to get them into good field position, as they won't be getting much help at all from the Cowboys defence or ill-discipline.

The Cowboys backline trio of Robert Derby, Jaxon Purdue and Murray Taulagi have scored 7 tries apiece - and 21 of the teams 40 tries in the NRL so far this year, showing their strength on both wings for scoring capability. The Tigers though have Sunia Turuva and Starford To'a as their top try scorers with 9 and 5 respectively - showing a preference for Turuva's side, largely due to the combination he has with talented ball player Adam Doueihi, however its expected that Doueihi will line up at five-eighth which will change their attack systems somewhat. When he was shifted to the halves against Parramatta in Round 7, the Tigers lost and when he was reverted back to centre the following week, the Tigers beat top side Cronulla.

The Cowboys will understandably target Doueihi and ensure he gets shut down, effectively taking their strike scoring weapon out of the equation.

Last meeting: Round 22 2024 - Wests Tigers 30 Cowboys 48

Who to watch: After being snubbed for an Origin call up, expect Terrell May  to go on a rampage in this match and dominate the middle, as he has done so often already this year. Solomona Faatape could well be about to lock down a permanent place at centre if he and Doueihi play well. For the Cowboys, don't be surprised if Scott Drinkwater takes on more playmaking duties in this match, and with good results, to try and reduce the number of minutes required by returning Origin half Tom Dearden. While many eyes may well be on John Bateman's first game against the club he unceremoniously parted with, it's his back row partner Jeremiah Nanai who could well cause the Tigers edge a world of worry. The Cowboys have a bigger bench than the Tigers, so if they get on top early, they could rack up another big score.

Favourite: Cowboys are comfortable favourites, and recent form proves that they deserve to be.

My tip: There will be plenty of points scored. Its possible that the impact of Origin on the Cowboys players backing-up could be a factor. My head says Cowboys by 18 and my heart says Tigers by 18.

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Jaxon Purdue 7. Tom Dearden 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Sam McIntyre 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Kai O'Donnell 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess 18. Jake Clifford

1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To'a 5. Charlie Staines 6. Heath Mason 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Royce Hunt 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal 14. Brent Naden 15. Jack Bird 16. Sione Fainu 17. Tony Sukkar 18. Tristan Hope

Referees: Gerard Sutton; Sideline Officials: Daniel Schwass, Jarrod Cole; Video Referees: Ashley Klein;