NSW v QLD: Origin III preview

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New South Wales v Queensland Wednesday 8:00pm at Accor Stadium, Sydney Olympic Park / Wanngal

It all comes down to 80 minutes of football inside the greatest stage known to our wonderful sport, as the 2025 State of Origin series winds up inside of Accor Stadium on Wednesday night. 

It was the tale of two halves in Perth, as 57,000 fans packed into Optus Stadium to watch the Queensland Maroons force a deciding game - taking down the fancied NSW Blues 26-24 on a wet winters night in the west.

Queensland came into the game under pressure, with Blues fans from Bondi to Broken Hill claiming the Origin series before a ball was kicked off. What ended up happening, turned into one of the best Origin games in recent series. 

A dominant first half saw Queensland walk into the sheds at half-time up 26-6; Blues fans drowning in Tooheys New to live with the sobering reality that Queensland could put up a cricket score. 

The second half saw the Blues rain hellfire and brimstone on a drab Maroons outfit, with goalkicking once again letting down NSW - Zac Lomax kicking at just 40% off the tee as the Maroons snuck away with a win.

At the home of Blatchy's Blues to finish the series, the Blues will walk in with the same crew under an injury cloud and the same questions over their ability to clutch up when the moment demands it. 

The Maroons walk in knowing full well that it was a 35 minute stint that won them the game in Perth. Out of 160 minutes so far, the Maroons have been dominant for a fifth of that time and yet  still have a chance to take the shield back across the Tweed River. 

State versus State. Mate versus Mate. In version 44 of the State of Origin, it comes down to one game at the mecca of rugby league… Accor Stadium. 

New South Wales have stayed with the same 17 that narrowly went down to Queensland in Perth, despite Nathan Cleary and Payne Haas coming in under a bit of an injury cloud. Matt Burton will return to club land as Bulldogs teammate Jacob Kiraz takes the role of 18th man at Accor Stadium. Lindsay Smith and Bradman Best are both rewarded for some consistent form with squad call ups at 19th and 20th man respectively

Queensland have pulled the trigger on some more changes, with the most notable being Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow heading to fullback for the first time in his Maroons career to replace the injured Kalyn Ponga. That opens up the space for Gehamat Shibasaki to make his Origin debut, having been in on a train-and-trial deal just five months ago. 

Josh Papalii will have one final swansong to bring some much needed enforcement to the Queensland pack, replacing Moeaki Fotuaika. That leaves Reece Walsh as the 18th man, with Josh Kerr and J'Maine Hopgood the reserves in the squad. 

Last meeting: Game II, 2025 - NSW 24 QLD 26

Who to watch: Payne Haas hasn't been his impactful self over the first two games, albeit in part due to injury. In what has been a common trend, Haas has only been cleared on gameday to play and despite that, he averages a career series high in average metres run, tackle busts and he hasn't missed a single tackle. Coming up against Josh Papalii, the Broncos enforcer will need to be at his very best from the get go if NSW are to rally back and keep the Shield in Sydney.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will come into this game with the biggest target on his back. Having usurped Reece Walsh as the preferred fullback, the Hammer will be looking to insert himself early and repeat his perfect first half in Perth. While dangerous on the outside, his speed means that it's Hammer Time as soon as he gets the ball in broken play through the middle. Expect him around the ruck, with the old Melbourne Storm outside-in play to pop up more than once in a bid to send the Hammer flying through the guts of the Blues.

Favourite: New South Wales are firm favourites despite the Game II setback.

My tip: On paper, the Blues have the stronger squad - it's just a matter of fact. The Maroons have players who can break the game apart at any given moment all over the field, while the Blues have the better, stronger, all round side. In front of over 80,000 of the Blues faithful, in a series decider, it'll be the NSW Blues who come out victorious. It may not be as magical as James Tedesco's series-sealing try back in 2019, but it will be all the same for Blatchy's Blues and the NSW faithful. Blues by 6.

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Max King 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Stefano Utoikamanu 18. Jacob Kiraz

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tom Dearden 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Trent Loiero 14. Kurt Mann 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai 18. Reece Walsh

Referees: Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Dave Munro, Chris Sutton; Video Referees: Chris Butler;