Round 16: Warriors v St George Illawarra preview
Warriors name new recruits immediately in bid to remain in finals contention against Dragons.
In the 2021 NRL season, the gap between the top few teams and the rest is huge. While that may mean more predictability come finals time, it also has the welcome side effect of creating a logjam at the bottom half of the 8, with only four competition points separating 7th and 14th.
The Dragons and Warriors are coming 7th and 11th respectively, however that part of the ladder is so volatile at the moment that just one game can have a significant effect. For example, last week the Dragons just scraped home against the Raiders by two points. Had that result gone the other way, the Saints would be tenth with Canberra in the 8. The Warriors represent the other side of the equation, going down 10-6 in a dour affair with Newcastle and looking up at the top 8 teams as a result. A big win would've also seen them in the top half of the competition.
Looking at the teams who make up this bottleneck, it wouldn't surprise if the ladder remained this way until the end of the season. It means that there'll be three, four, maybe even 5 teams that lament key moments where the wrong decisions were made, that could've seen them go one step further.
Friday evenings matchup between the Dragons and the Warriors definitely could be a deciding factor in what the makeup of the eight looks like come September. Both teams have the ability to play great football on their day, while also having a tremendously low floor. These two sides last met in Round 6, and it was the Warriors who snapped the Dragons 4 game winning streak. Since then, they've both suffered 6 losses, which creates potential for this game, after the origin weekend off, to be a foundation for some sort of finals run.
In team news, Reece Walsh picked up an injury in Maroons camp and is unavailable for this game, meaning Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returns to the fullback position. There are two new wingers, with Edward Kosi recalled and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to make his club debut after signing last week. This pushes Marcelo Montoya to the centres after Euan Aitken was caught up in some COVID-19 drama along with teammate Josh Curran. Chad Townsend has been named at halfback to play his first game as a Warrior since 2015, pushing Sean O'Sullivan to the reserves.In the Warriors forwards, Egan returns from injury, pushing Tevaga back to the bench, while Murdoch-Masila will move to the second row to accommodate the loss of Curran. Kane Evans starts at prop as a result, while Tohu Harris goes to lock and Katoa into the back row with Sironen back to the bench. Bunty Afoa replaces Taniela Otukolo on the interchange. For the Dragons, Dufty returns to fullback, pushing youngster Tyrell Sloan out of the side, while Ravalawa's suspension sees Beale move to the wing and Bird back to centre. Josh Kerr moves back to the second row, which sees Vaughan regain his starting spot. McGuire returns from suspension and will come off the bench, while Fuimaono is in in place of Clune.
Last meeting: Round 6 2021 - Dragons 14 Warriors 20
Who to watch: The Warriors have made an interesting move signing out of favour Sharks playmaker Chad Townsend for the rest of 2021 before he heads North to take up a lucrative 3 year deal with the Cowboys. There is no doubt that Townsend has the ability to be a very capable halfback - you don't win a premiership without that ability - however it has been a while since we have seen that ability on a football field. While watching highlights from the 2018 finals series, it's clear that Townsend was a vital cog in the Sharks attack, putting in a deft grubber on the 2nd tackle reminiscent to a move a top half would make. Fast forward to now and Cronulla have made notable strides forward after dropping him. Perhaps a change of scenery is what's needed for him to get back to his best, and who knows, on Friday we may see the beginning of the resurgence of Chad Townsend.
You won't see many players have more contrasting performances over two weeks than Matt Dufty did in Rounds 13 and 14. In Round 13 against the Broncos, Dufty was offensively involved in everything, equalling a club record of 5 try assists while scoring 2 of his own. The stellar display coincided with him being informed he wasn't part of the Dragons plans beyond 2021, leaving many scratching their heads. The week after against the Bulldogs, he had one of the most shocking defensive displays I can remember from any individual, with at least 3 of Canterbury's tries caused by his own incompetence. It meant that potential suitors for the fullback went cold and as it stands, Dufty faces an uphill battle to gain an NRL contract for 2022. He sat out last round with an injury, meaning he's had an extended period to work on his deficiencies, and I hope he has because in attack, he's one of the more scintillating players to watch.
The favourite: The Warriors are favoured by just two and a half points over the Dragons.
My tip: This is a real toss of the coin job. The Dragons do have half their spine backing up from origin, however both Hunt and McCullough played limited minutes, and I think it may take the new combinations of the Warriors time to gel. St George Illawarra by 6.
