Finals Week 1: QF 1: Storm v Sea Eagles preview
To open the 2021 Finals series, the minor premiers the Melbourne Storm ‘host' the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles in what could be a classic.
What a way to start the Finals series for 2021. A clash between two of the best teams in the competition on a Friday night will have rugby league fans everywhere salivating. Especially given the history between the two clubs, highlighted by the infamous ‘battle of Brookvale' some 10 years ago and now both teams are ready to write the next chapter in the intense rivalry between Manly and Melbourne.
Now, back to the present day, we've got the Melbourne Storm who won 21 of their 24 games, including just one loss since the beginning of April coming up against the in-form and spectacular Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, who stormed into the top four despite losing their opening four games of the season in convincing fashion.
The two sides met a month ago with the Storm running away as 10-point victors after a dominant display which saw Melbourne finish with 58 per cent of possession of the football. The Sea Eagles didn't help themselves with 12 errors and 13 penalties/set restarts compared with the Storm's seven errors and six penalties/set restarts. These stats are quite damning and the fact that the Sea Eagles only lost by 10-points is impressive in itself.
Since that Round 21 fixture, the two sides have played four games each, with Melbourne coming away with three wins and the Sea Eagles coming away with four, so it's safe to say that both teams are in exceptional form as they head into the finals.
Both teams are littered with star players including nine who have featured in State of Origin in the past. Most notably, Tom Trbojevic of the Manly Sea Eagles who has compiled one of the most impressive seasons in the game's history despite playing just 15 of the 24 games this year. The star fullback is one of the favourites for the Dally M Medal this season and is arguably the most dangerous player on the field which makes him a target for the Storm.
How do Melbourne stop him? Well, in last year's Grand Final, the Storm nullified Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai by cramping both halves of space which reduced the time they had on the ball, resulting in their worst kicking performance of the season and ultimately a loss in the biggest game of the year. Whether this tactic will work against an improved Nathan Cleary is yet to be seen, but hopefully we're able to witness a clash between last year's grand finalist at some stage over the next four weeks.
Stopping Trbojevic may be a little more challenging. As a fullback, you're generally given plenty of time on the ball as many fullbacks sit out the back of shape, allowing themselves time and space to make life difficult for the defence. Tommy has proven that he is arguably the most dangerous player in the game when given space to work with and has resulted in him breaking the line 30 times in 15 appearances whilst averaging an incredible seven tackle breaks per game.
The Storm will no doubt try and take Trbojevic's time and space away from him, but their slide defence will have to be at the top of their game given Turbo's quick hands. The Sea Eagles have been excellent at capitalising on overlaps this season thanks in large part to the speed of Jason Saab on the wing. Daly Cherry-Evans, Reuben Garrick, Trbojevic and Saab have linked up on multiple occasions this season, resulting in an absurd amount of tries for the Manly back three. Melbourne have to be cautious of this and a perfect slide defence could halt the breaks on Manly's exhilarating attack.
Essentially, Melbourne will be aiming to restrict the influence that Trbojevic has on Manly's attack and if they can do so, it'll take them a long way to winning the game. Melbourne are the better side on paper but with Trbojevic on the field, literally anything can happen.
The biggest advantage the Storm have over the Sea Eagles is in the dummy-half position. The Sea Eagles will start Lachlan Croker who has done an excellent job this year but will face tough competition in the two-strike punch that is Harry Grant and Brandon Smith who are both exceptional players. If Grant and Smith can control the ruck and turn the big Manly forwards around consistently, they'll be able to attack Manly through the middle, a tactic which has worked quite well for both players, especially Smith and the 11 tries he has scored this season.
In team news, Josh Aloiai returns for the Sea Eagles, pushing Toafofoa Sipley to the extended bench. Whilst the Storm make several changes with the likes of Cameron Munster, George Jennings and Reimis Smith returning to the backline after a well earnt rest. Nicho Hynes returns to the bench with Dean Ieremia and Marion Seve dropping out of the 17. In the forwards, Jesse Bromwich, Christian Welch, Felise Kaufusi and Kenny Bromwich return for the Storm, moving Tui Kamikamica and Nelson Asofa-Solomona to the bench with Chris Lewis, Trent Loiero, Aaron Pene, Tepai Moeroa and Daniel Atkinson dropping out of the side.
Last meeting: Round 21 2021 - Sea Eagles 18 Storm 28
Who to watch: Trbojevic was mentioned heavily throughout the preview and will get another write up here thanks to his arguably unprecedented season. The 24-year-old fullback has scored 25 tries and assisted a further 27 in just 15 games this season, an absolutely absurd number. Trbojevic has also scored an incredible five hat tricks this season, with all five occurring in his last eight appearances. The New South Wales centre has set career-highs in the majority of recorded statistics including a mammoth 221 run metres per game, a whopping 32 metres per game better than his previous best (189m per game in 2017). It's been an incredible season for Trbojevic and if he can perform like he has all season in the finals, it could well and truly go down as the best individual season in the games' history. He'll line up against fellow New South Welshman, Ryan Papenhuyzen who has had a tough year with concussions, despite killing it early in the season. In just 13 appearances, ‘the Pap' has scored 11 tries, assisted six and broke the line on 12 occasions, nothing quite like Trbojevic but impressive non the less. The little fullback returned to his best form on the weekend and has grown more comfortable each week after he returned to his preferred position in Round 23. In those three games, Papenhuyzen has scored three tries, assisted a further three tries, broke 20 tackles and run for an average of 177 run metres per game. The matchup between these two-star fullbacks will be exhilarating to watch.
The favourite: Melbourne are currently the favourites to win the game and rightfully so. The Storm have only lost one game since round three and have been the best team in the competition over the course of the season, highlighted by their fourth minor premiership in just six seasons. They're aiming to win their first back-to-back premierships in the club's history and beating Manly could well set them on that path.
My tip: Manly should give the Melbourne Storm a run for their money but I expect Melbourne to have too much class all over the park. Melbourne's ability to limit Trbojevic's influence on the game with be vital to the outcome. It'll be a tight one. Melbourne by 6.
