Round 6: Eels v Wests Tigers preview
Eels look to continue dominance, Tigers to search for unlikely first win of 2022
The traditional Easter Monday matchup between the Eels and Tigers has been incredibly one-sided in recent years, and barring a miracle that trend looks set to continue in Round 6.
Parramatta have gotten off to an extremely hot start to the season, winning 4 of their first 5, which isn't really a surprise when you look at their recent results across the opening weeks of the year. In the opening 8 rounds of the last 3 years, the Eels are 20 wins and 4 losses, 24-5 if you include 2022 so far.
Since having the opportunity to clinch a finals berth with a last round win over the Sharks in 2019, the Tigers have been in gradual decline, culminating in what you see now as a team in absolute shambles, with seemingly no reason for optimism, with their best shot at a victory being cruelly taken from them courtesy of a last ditch Toby Sexton kick 2 weeks ago.
Last week, the Eels got off to a flying start against the Titans, racing out to a 14-0 half time lead before making it a 20 point margin with just over half an hour to go. They then proceeded to let their opposition back into the game, with the Gold Coast scoring the next 3 tries and the final score ending 26-20 in favour of the Eels.
The late game fade-out is definitely a cause for concern out West, especially some of the defensive efforts present from their big men on David Fifita's runaway try, however they will also draw some confidence that their playmakers were able to overcome the hurdles and make the crucial decisions when it mattered, with Moses' execution of a crossfield kick that ended in a Dylan Brown try being what ultimately won them the game.
As for the Tigers, their previous two close losses were followed by a blowout loss to the Sharks. It was over as soon as the ball was put into flight on the opening kickoff; the Sharks had all the momentum immediately and while they weren't able to convert that into points straight away, they did whittle the Tigers down throughout, culminating in a final scoreline of 30-4.
The spotlight is continually shone on the Tigers spine for their struggles, and they are certainly not without blame, however the front-rowers for the joint venture simply can't win the contact battle and do not generate metres or momentum with their carries. Per @LeagueEyeTest on Twitter, the Tigers only have 11.99% of their total metres gained coming from their prop forwards, the second lowest in the NRL and well below the league average of 15.2% and significantly lower than their opposition on Sunday, with the Eels big men accounting for 18.74% of their total metres.
It will take a herculean effort from the Tigers pack to match it with the Eels on Monday and give them any chance at all of causing the upset.
In team news, the Eels have suffered yet another injury on the wing, with Waqa Blake being the latest to be sidelined indefinitely. Brad Arthur has opted to move Will Penisini to the wing as a result, while Marata Niukore comes into the side as a centre. Junior Paulo is out due to suspension, replaced by Oregon Kaufusi in the starting pack, while the return of Shaun Lane sees Ryan Matterson go back to the bench. Hayze Perham has been given the last interchange spot instead of Bryce Cartwright.
For the Tigers, Michael Maguire has wielded the axe. Daine Laurie returns at fullback, pushing Starford To'a to the wing, while recent recruits Oliver Gildart and Ken Maumalo have been dropped, the latter to accommodate the return of James Roberts. The return of Jackson Hastings sees Jock Madden go back to the bench, while Jacob Liddle has been dropped due to poor performance, replaced by Simpkin. Tyrone Peachey is the other big name that has been dropped.
Last meeting: Round 14 2021 - Eels 40 Wests Tigers 12
Who to watch: The move from Penrith to Parramatta has been extremely fruitful for Reagan Campbell-Gillard, and last week the former origin player had one of his best outings yet, running for over 190 metres in the first half alone. He finished with 20 runs for 241 metres (104 post contact), while also making a tackle break and making 37 tackles with only 1 miss. It wasn't just this one game in isolation that has Campbell-Gillard putting up impressive numbers. He has 342 post-contact metres on the season so far, the third most among front rowers, while also having 868 total running metres, with the only front-rower with more being Payne Haas of the Broncos (892). With his fellow stalwart Junior Paulo sitting on the sidelines for this one, it will be up to RCG to pick up even more slack for the Eels, and based on recent performances he will be more than capable of doing what's required.
For the Tigers, Luciano Leilua has been consistently one of their best forwards in a pack that has struggled for metres. Last week he ran for an extremely efficient 133 metres from 13 runs to go with 3 tackle breaks and 29 tackles with only 2 misses. On the season, Leilua ranks in the top 8% among front rowers for metres per run (stats again courtesy of the League Eye Test), and when watching the Tigers play it is clear the Leilua is extremely gifted at finding open space and accelerating into it, while also being able to consistently bend the line once contact is initiated. If the teams run out as listed, Leilua will be matched up on an edge against Shaun Lane, who can occasionally struggle defensively. Look for Leilua to have another impressive outing, even if his team doesn't.
The favourite: The Eels are 20.5 point favourites over the Tigers in this one.
My tip: Obviously I think the Eels are going to win, however it could be by less than expected with the Blue and Gold missing Waqa Blake and Junior Paulo, who are both in their top 5 for total metres gained. Eels by 10.
