Match Centre

Round 2: Broncos v Cowboys preview

Queensland Rivals to Face Off In Pursuit Of Consecutive Wins To Start The Season

For years, the Broncos versus the Cowboys was as good as it got in the NRL. From 2015-2017, they played five times, and on four of those occasions the match was decided by a singular point. 

Since then, both sides have had a tough time remaining competitive, the Cowboys finishing in the bottom four every year from 2018-2021 while the Broncos collected their first ever wooden spoon in 2020 and followed it up with a 14th placed finish in 2021. 

It would appear, however, that both of these storied clubs are on their way to consistent relevance once again, with the Cowboys following up their top four season with an opening round victory last week, while the Broncos shocked the world by defeating defending premiers the Panthers in their own back yard. 

While the end result was a one-point victory for both teams, the path to getting there was extremely different. The Broncos streaked out to an early 12-6 lead in the first half and were able to defend it with extremely tight goal line structure and a superb long kicking game from Adam Reynolds, who also added what would ultimately be the match winning field goal in the 70th minute. 

The Cowboys, however, enjoyed an unprecedented share of possession in the first half and were able to give themselves an 18-point cushion over the Raiders as a result. When things evened up, the Raiders came storming home, tying it up at 18 apiece with over 20 minutes to play and looking like the better team. The Cowboys were able to dig deep though, forcing errors at opportune times and allowing Chad Townsend an opportunity to go one up with a field goal in the 75th minute, which he did like a seasoned veteran. 

With both teams round 1 game so tightly contested, it sets up their encounter at Suncorp Stadium on Friday as one that has the potential to match the classics of yesteryear. Will the Broncos be able to back up a performance which would've required the use of every last drop of gas in the tank? Will the Cowboys impressive first half attack be able to produce similar results with a more even possession share? Read on as I attempt to answer these questions and more. 

The result last week is one that the Broncos of 2022 would not have been able to pull off, plain and simple. Their collapse to miss the finals altogether was as embarrassing as any that I can remember and showed a concerning lack of resilience amongst the playing group. While it remains to be seen whether the Panther's attacking woes last week were primarily caused by changes in Penrith or changes in Brisbane, they one thing they did show is that the Broncos have the capacity to defend several sets on their own line when the momentum is against them. 

This should be of concern to the Cowboys. All three of their tries were scored in a first half in which they had 72% of possession and 81% of the game played in the Raiders half. Aside from this abnormally large passage of play, they didn't really look like scoring a try. The first time the Raiders got the ball in decent attacking position (which was 39 minutes into the match), they ran a basic crash play which the Cowboys were unable to defend, and in the second half, when the stats were much more even, they conceded two tries in the first 18 minutes. 

Usually, it's unwise to use statistics from previous years to assess how a team may perform in the present, but considering the Cowboys have an identical starting 13 to last year's finals series I think it's appropriate. In their last 5 games against top 8 opponents (excluding the Panthers reserves in Round 25), they conceded 26.4 points per game, which doesn't include games against the Sea Eagles, Broncos and Tigers in which they conceded 26 points each time. 

It will be interesting to see whether the Cowboys have moved on from this concerning trend, or if the Broncos can showcase what their attack is capable of against a defence that hasn't done much against quality opposition recently. 

Last meeting: Round 16 2022 - Cowboys 40 Broncos 26

Who to watch: Both forward packs and benches are relatively even in quality, so it isn't a a stretch to say that this game may come down to who wins the halfback duel between Adam Reynolds and Chad Townsend. 

Both veteran number 7's had games to remember in Round 1, with Reynolds throwing a beautiful pass close to the line to put Herbie Farnworth over for a try, avoiding an intercept attempt from Stephen Crichton in the process. His long kicking game was exceptional, consistently finding the turf in a game where field position was dominated by the opposition. The match winning field goal was the icing on the cake that gave Broncos fans the all clear to get excited about what may be to come in 2023.

The Chad had moments that were equally as impressive against the Raiders. His broken-field grubber on the inside to set up Scott Drinkwater's first try in the 18th minute was up there with the best play of the round, and he was able to force a further two goal-line dropouts, including one that came on a scrambling fifth tackle play that looked certain to end in the Cowboys giving up possession. His field goal in the 75th minute was also a textbook display of how to execute in close games. 

The favourite: The Broncos are 2-point favourites over the Cowboys at the time of writing.

My tip: If Round 1 is anything to go by, both these teams are in for big years. For me, it's hard to go past the Broncos in this one, they will have had an extra day of recovery and the Cowboys defence is too suspect for me to pick them against a good team with any confidence. Broncos by 10.