Round 5: Sea Eagles v Knights preview
Manly look to bounce back v rejuvenated Knights
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles will be looking to bounce back following their first loss of the season when they take on the Newcastle Knights at Glen Willow Regional Stadium in Mudgee.
Manly were very unfortunate to go down last start against South Sydney after they were left to rue a controversial forward pass call that went against the Sea Eagles. However, they can take a lot away from this golden point heartbreaker which leaves the Manly side better off as the season continues on.
Heading into this clash with the Knights, there are weaknesses that I believe can be explored. The impact Tommy Turbo can have in the red-zone. South Sydney were able to nullify Turbo last week and his ability to get on the ball wasn't at the same levels it was against Parramatta. I expect Anthony Seibold to get him involved more on set plays.
Elsewhere, Josh Schuster needs to be more involved in the attacking phase of play. Schuster gave many fans a front row seat to his highs and lows last season and if his first two games are any indication, it could be a bumpy ride if his touches in the red-zone drop away.
On the teams front, Tolu Koula is out for the next 6-8 weeks with an MCL injury which is a blow to that right edge of Manly which has looked on shaky ground recently. It's going to get shakier with Morgan Harper replacing him. Lachie Croker does return with Lawton dropping to the reserves.
Newcastle have shown some improvement in year 4 of the Adam O'Brien era. Already having to use players outside his top 30, the Knights boss must be commended for the way he has rallied the troops to a surprising 2-2 start to the season.
Last start against Canberra was another example of this with Lachie Miller finding his feet as the number two playmaking option while Kalyn Ponga is in Canada getting advice on his playing future. Also to impress was new buy Greg Marzhew. While criticised for his defensive reads, his attacking phase makes him one of the better wingers in the competition. Elsewhere, the forwards lifted in the continued absence of Jacob Saifiti with Jack Hethrington and Mat Croker making their desired impact.
To beat Manly, the Knights need to target the right of Manly. As mentioned, that edge defensively is an accident waiting to happen. Bradman Best was able to exploit the Raiders a couple of times down that side of the field and with Manly looking suspect, it's the perfect time to strike. Elsewhere, Manly's middle lacked punch when their rotation kicked into gear and it's yet another opportunity for guys like Hethrington and Croker to show their worth.
On the teams front, you don't change a winning formula unless forced to. Adam O'Brien has named a near identical lineup. The only change is Kurt Mann is out with concussion and Jack Johns replaces him.
Last meeting: Round 18 2022 - Sea Eagles 42 Knights 12
Who to watch: I'm going to go a little deeper on Josh Schuster. A lot was made about his weight loss and his move to 5/8 and his first game back saw some changes. But, Manly went away from getting Schuster involved against Souths for some reason and it brought dire consequences.
A Schuster without the footy is a disinterested one, and at times he looked it against Souths. Look for Seibold to allow Schuster to get good quality ball in this one.
As mentioned before, the swap deal to bring Lachlan Miller to the Knights might become one of Adam O'Brien's big legacy marks on Newcastle. Miller is getting more and more comfortable with every passing week and with his confidence building, the Knights will be a better side.
His start to the season was a little slow, but in the last two weeks, his attacking skills are showing rapidly and it's why he's the man to inspire Newcastle to victory on Saturday.
Favourite: On the markets, Manly start slight favourites here. Manly have also won their last two games in Mudgee by 13 points or more.
My tip: It's hard to tip this one, as it's a match that could easily go either way. However, I see Manly rising to the occasion in Mudgee in front of the country fans to redeem themselves for last week's loss. But I will concede it will be closer than Manly's other matches in the regional city. Manly by 6.
