Round 7: Titans v Broncos preview
The All-Queensland encounters between these side have tended to be largely lop-sided in favour of the Broncos, but this weekend is a little different.
This will be just the fifth time that these two sides have met while both placed inside the top 6 on the ladder. 3 of those games were played at Cbus Super Stadium, with the Titans winning two of them. Those 3 games were also decided by 8 points or less. History is telling us clearly, that this will be a tight encounter.
However there are two glaring issues for the Titans. First is their attack. There are 5 teams lower than them on the ladder who are averaging more points per game. 10 of the Titans 18 tries so far have come through 3 players - outside backs Alofiana Khan-Pereira (5), Phillip Sami (3) and Aaron Schoupp (2). If the Broncos edge defence continues to number up strongly in defence as it has done for the majority of the season thus far, as well as providing good kick pressure, the Titans may very well struggle to even get across the stripe.
The Titans also struggle to get a good share of the ball, averaging 46.3% possession, which is the worst in the NRL at present. Their post contact metres are also very low, averaging 225 metres less per game than the Broncos, which is far too wide a gap.
Second is their defence. There are also 5 teams lower them on the ladder who are conceding less points per game than they are. The Titans average 37 missed tackles per game, the worst in the NRL and 10 per game more than the Broncos. It gets worse though. They average 21.7 Ineffective Tackles per game, an immense 13 more than the Broncos.
Their discipline is also a problem, conceding an average of 7.3 penalties per game compared to the Broncos 5.7, while the number of handling errors per game is 3 more than the Broncos.
Simply put, those figures are atrocious and they need to rectify all those areas immediately if they are to remain in the top 8.
Last week, the Raiders showed it was possible to beat the Broncos through sheer might and power through the middle. It took an 80 minute effort for the Raiders to get the job done.
This Titans side has yet to show that it has the starch and mettle in the middle to replicate that Raiders performance, especially against a Broncos side coming off their first loss of the season and will be itching to get back to winning as quickly and as emphatically as possible.
Last meeting: Round 18 2022 - Titans 12 Broncos 16
Who to watch: Payne Haas met his match last week in Josh Papali'i and was largely nullified by a committed Raiders middle defensive squad. He looked to get a bit too sideways at times and moved away from his powerful direct running that had been so devastating in the opening 5 games. Watch for him to run much straighter and mixing it up with runs in the middle and just on the edge of the ruck. He'll also be looking to get offloads away regularly to his fullback Reece Walsh, who has very quickly formed a nice combination with the big man.
Ezra Mam has been choosing his run times really well and looks dangerous every time he touches the ball. He will be looking to link up better with his outside men this week after the Raiders defence largely kept him in check last week.
David Fifita is running the ball much more frequently and straighter than in his past few seasons. Expect him to make a beeline for the Broncos centres and also to run inside angles back towards Adam Reynolds as frequently as possible to try and nullify the impact of the Broncos halfback. Fifita is also likely to be bearing down on Reynolds kicks all game.
The favourite: Despite stumbling to Canberra last week, Brisbane are best backed to overcome 'little brother'.
My tip: The Broncos weren't atrocious in their loss last week but they have slipped in form over the past two weeks. Plenty of broken down plays and poor handling ruined several chances to either build pressure through repeat sets or scoring opportunities. Expect that to be righted largely in this game. Broncos by 16.
