Round 8: Roosters v Dragons ANZAC Day Cup preview
An out-of-sorts Roosters side will take on the struggling Dragons in what poses to be either a thriller or a dour slog in their now traditional ANZAC Day clash on Tuesday afternoon.
The Roosters dropped their opening game of the season to the Dolphins in a shock loss, but bounced with consecutive victories against the Warriors, rivals Souths and 2022 Grand Finalists Parramatta, before back-to-back timid performances against Melbourne and Cronulla, losing both games.
The once impressive Roosters attack has disappeared, as they are averaging just 17.67 points per game, better than only the bottom 4 teams on the ladder. Defensively they are still very good, which is a very important and key attribute from which to work from.
Every statistical area that the Roosters are struggling in though, so too are the Dragons, thus it makes sense that the two sides are struggling and outside the top 8 and not far away from each other on the ladder.
The Dragons season began in Round 2 where they produced a strong win against the Titans, before copping back-to-back hidings from the Broncos (40-18) and the Sharks (40-8) before dishing one out themselves when they beat the Dolphins 38-12. Their two games since have been disappointing to say the least, losing by 2 points to the Titans and by 6 points to the lowly Raiders.
Both sides have low error and handling error counts and reasonably higher completion rates, which in simple terms suggests that they are playing low risk football.
With both sides being among the four worst performing clubs regarding Post Contact Metres, All run metres, total runs and decoy runs, shows that both sides are not doing enough to make vital metres through the middle, or to try and break up the man-on-man defensive line.
The Roosters have, on paper, the more skilful side in the spine, yet there seems to be very little creativity or variation coming from them, which would be a key reason behind coach Trent Robinson making some changes in halves to try and get out of the rut and shakes things up a little.
The Dragons for the most part appear to be overachieving somewhat, however recent pressure on their coach may cause him to respond with some new approaches and style of play. All-in-all, we should be in line for a close contest, if it may be at times, a bit sloppy.
Last meeting: Round 18 2022 - Roosters 54 Dragons 26
Who to watch: Joseph Manu has been moved to five-eighth and Luke Keary shifts from five-eighth to halfback, in what seems like a better role for Keary, while Manu will become a ball running weapon. Angus Crichton and Paul Momirovski are also back for their first games of the year, both also providing strong line running options on the edge which should provide some alternatives for Keary to work with.
Ben Hunt is always a danger to any side. His kicking game and overall organisation of his side has seen him ensure that this Dragons team is never the write-off that many pundits believe they are. Ben Murdoch-Masila returns to the side, replacing Jaydn Su'A in the back row. He will have the job of trying to contain and possibly exploit the returning Angus Crichton.
The favourite: The Roosters will be the favourites here, especially given how much stronger their side looks on paper, however this could very well be a closely fought battle.
My tip: Keary back at 7, Crichton returning, Manu a menace at 6. Roosters to win by 8.
