Finals Week 1: Panthers v Warriors preview
The Warriors are back. Back in the finals for the first time since 2018, back against the same time that knocked them out of contention that year with a 27-12 win.
This is a different Warriors team to that one though, transformed under rookie coach Andrew Webster with an evolution in game plan that is best summed up by Shaun Johnson's own individual metamorphosis as a player this season.
Of course, this Panthers side is a very different one to 2018 too. Now Penrith is on the verge of history, with a chance to book its spot in the preliminary final and go one step closer to a third-straight premiership.
The Panthers rebounded from a surprise loss to the Eels by dismantling the Cowboys in clinical fashion last week, running away 44-12 winners to claim the minor premiership.
An undermanned Warriors team, on the other hand, were comprehensively beaten 34-10 by the Dolphins and while that result says little about their finals aspirations, there is cause for concern given the way they finished the regular season.
The Warriors were on a seven-game winning run before that Dolphins loss but victories over lowly opposition like the Dragons, Sea Eagles, Tigers and - yes - even top-eight team the Raiders - were unconvincing.
Sorry for that subtle drive-by Canberra fans, but the points differential speaks volumes.
Anyway, the Warriors have hardly had the kind of preparation needed to make the step up against a competition heavyweight like Penrith.
It is a sign of growth, however, that the Warriors have found a way to win those kind of games when they weren't performing to their absolute best. The Warriors of old would have dropped a few of them.
The problem is the Warriors will need to be at their absolute best to be a chance against a Panthers side that is now full-strength, of course outside of at five-eighth with Jarome Luai still sidelined.
Otherwise, both Mitch Kenny (hamstring) and Scott Sorensen (leg) return with Tyrone Peachey seemingly the favoured utility option now over Soni Luke.
Luke Sommerton is on the extended bench to provide cover should Kenny suffer any setbacks with his injury.
Elsewhere, Tohu Harris (back) is named despite concerns he could miss week one of the finals while Jazz Tevaga returns from a hamstring injury to take his spot on the bench.
The winner of this game earns the week off while the loser plays either the high-flying Knights or Raiders.
Last meeting: Round 10 2023 - Warriors 6 Panthers 18
Who to watch: Against a big Warriors side packing plenty of punch, look for interchange forward Spencer Leniu to make a statement off the bench for the Panthers. Leniu finishes up at the foot of the mountains at the end of this year, set to make the switch to the Eastern Suburbs. But first Leniu has his eyes set on finishing his time with the Panthers on a high and will be sorely missed next year, having proven a high-impact interchange player for the defending premiers. Leniu averages just under 100 running metres despite only seeing around 30 to 35 minutes of playing time off the bench. Should the Warriors try to jump the Panthers early, a player like Leniu will prove crucial in swinging momentum back in Penrith's favour.
As for the Warriors, the key to breaking down a resolute Penrith defence will be ball-playing through the middle and that starts with lock forward Tohu Harris. It is unclear just how fit Harris is, having been reportedly at risk of missing Saturday's game with back spasms. Harris though has been named and will play a crucial role for the Warriors as not only a workhorse through the middle to tidy things up in defence, but also an extra creative spark through the middle. Harris laid on a beautiful short ball to put Adddin Fonua-Blake over against the Panthers earlier this year. Those short, sharp passes could help the Warriors create opportunities against a Penrith side that often gives its opponents little room to move.
Favourite: The Panthers are well-backed to make it four-straight preliminary final appearances.
My tip: The Warriors have been coasting over the last month or two and will need to go up to another level or risk being blown apart by the Panthers early. Should Penrith weather the early storm, this shapes as a fairly comfortable win for the home side when considering recent form. Panthers by 20.
