Queensland v New South Wales
NRL 2025: what you need to know
45 days ago | LeagueUnlimited Media
State of Origin 1 Preview
Maroons bunker down for war as Blues start their quest to go back to back.
Queensland Coach Kevin Walters was quick to get on the front foot upon picking his team for this year's series opener at Suncorp Stadium, declaring war on the Blues before promptly banning any mention of the State the Origin shield currently resides in.
It's a tactic that has been widely scrutinised in Rugby League circles, but one that sees them focused solely on their own backyard and ensures a siege mentality awaits the Blues come Wednesday night.
The team itself looks really well balanced, with a tough no-nonsense pack and a sharp new-look spine that we got a glimpse of in game three last year.
Out of the starting team from that night are Billy Slater, Valentine Holmes, Andrew McCullough and Gavin Cooper, with Kalyn Ponga, Michael Morgan, Matt Gillett and Ben Hunt who moves from the bench to starting hooker, set to run out for the series opener.
The Maroons will also showcase an exciting new bench with Jarrod Wallace, Tim Glasby and Coen Hess replaced by Dylan Napa and three debutantes - Joe Ofahengaue, David Fifita and Moses Mbye.
Meanwhile, New South Wales Coach Brad Fittler seems to be keeping his men fairly relaxed in the build-up to Wednesday night's clash and don't seem to be taking any real notice of the Maroons tactics.
Attempting to become the first Blues team to claim back to back series victories since 2005, Fittler has named a further five debutantes to the eleven that helped them lift the shield last year.
Tom Trbojevic and James Roberts will be replaced by rookie Nick Cotric and experienced campaigner Josh Morris to form a new look right edge, whilst out of favour five-eighth James Maloney has been replaced by the competition's leading try-corer in Cody Walker.
Also fielding a new look interchange, Jack De Belin, Tariq Sims and Tyrone Peachey are out, with Payne Haas, Cameron Murray and Jack Wighton all set to debut and shape a seriously dangerous bench.
As always in Rugby League's toughest arena, the battle up front will go a long way to determining the outcome of this contest, whilst the kicking game will also be paramount.
The Blues look to have a slight edge in the yardage game, with their starting pack and bench forwards combined, averaging a little over 100 metres more than their Maroons rivals in NRL games this year. They will need to be better in this department in order to offset a distinct advantage the Maroons appear to have when kicking the ball.
Queensland halves Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster average more than 200 kicking metres more than the New South Wales pairing of Nathan Cleary and Cody Walker, not to mention the sprinkling of option kickers throughout their team with the likes of Hunt, Morgan and Ponga all capable of chiming in when required.
With Adam Reynolds doing the majority of the kicking at Souths, Walker's boot is scarcely called upon meaning the responsibility is set to fall predominantly on Cleary who already comes into this game under immense pressure. Cook out of acting half is developing that part of his game nicely and will need to take some pressure off his half with some timely kicks.
Much of the focus has been centred on how Munster and Ponga will combine on the left, but expect Cherry-Evans to play a key role in that respect. Adopting a Mitchell Pearce type role, playing fast and straight over the advantage line, the skipper will look to open up the space out wide, unleashing the duo to essentially pose a double threat as ball-running options.
Like the Maroons, much of the attack for New South Wales is expected to head down the left hand side with the line-running of Captain Boyd Cordner coupled with the electric speed and power of Latrell Mitchell and Josh Addo-Carr a natural go-to in attack.
Whilst the left-edge will pose a threat, expect the Blues to do much of their damage through the middle third of the field, particularly when they unleash interchange men Haas and Murray.
Arguably the two best young forwards in the game today, the two will pose some serious heat on the Maroons middle defenders with their footwork, leg-speed and quick play the balls set to ignite the Blues attack. On the back of them, Damien Cook will look to come into his own, jumping out of dummy half at every chance to bring the likes of Walker and Tedesco into the contest.
Last meeting: Game III 2018 - QLD 18 NSW 12, Suncorp Stadium
Already with the series in hand, the baby Blues were unable to complete a whitewash as many of them got their first taste of Origin at Suncorp which is of course a different beast all together.
Despite the obvious advantage the Maroons possess at home, it's worth noting that advantage doesn't necessarily apply in series openers. Since the venue reopened in 2003, honours sit at three apiece with the Blues winning the last two in the opening games of 2014 and 2017.
Who to watch: With the final member of the all-conquering spine that powered Queensland's dynasty for more than a decade retiring last year, Billy Slater passes the baton onto Kalyn Ponga to wear the number one jersey. Making his debut off the bench in game two last year, Ponga added toughness to his lengthy list of attributes, making 29 tackles in the middle before prying the Blues defence open late to very nearly steal the game and essentially the series. Has been in sublime touch for the Knights during their five game winning streak with his pace and footwork notably burning Blues back-rowers Frizell and Crichton in the two weeks leading into this contest.
Making his debut at this level last year, Damien Cook was instrumental in the Blues lifting the shield playing a key role out of dummy half. Picked in the team then on the back of his work rate in defence and electric running game, Cook has added layers to his game that make him twice the threat this year. Leading the competition for try-assists with 14, Cook has made the men around him just as dangerous as himself when on the attack. His ability to jump out of dummy half and hold the ball in two hands means a retreating defensive line is left guessing whether he'll run or pass. No one's in better form coming into the series opener.
The favourite: No surprises here. As per usual, the Blues hold favouritism leaving the Maroons exactly where they love to be.
My tip: Really like the look of both teams and the style in which they'll look to attack, making this mighty hard to tip. Often the case throughout history, just when you think Origin can't get any better, it goes to another level. That could easily happen again on Wednesday night.
When all's said and done, the opening twenty minutes should prove the key. As they say, you can't win an Origin at Suncorp in the opening twenty, but you can certainly lose one. That is the task facing this young and ambitious Blues outfit. If they can hold their ground early and kick smart, expect their speed through the middle to come out on top at the back end. Blues by 4.
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Corey Oates 3. Michael Morgan 4. Will Chambers 5. Dane Gagai 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Jai Arrow 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papalii 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Matt Gillett 13. Josh Mcguire 14. Moses Mbye 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Dylan Napa 17. David Fifita
1. James Tedesco 2. Josh Addo-Carr 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Josh Morris 5. Nick Cotric 6. Cody Walker 7. Nathan Cleary 8. David Klemmer 9. Damien Cook 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Tyson Frizell 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jack Wighton 15. Cameron Murray 16. Angus Crichton 17. Payne Haas
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein; Sideline Officials: Chris Butler, Nick Beashel; Video Referees: Jared Maxwell, Ben Galea;