Tonga v Wales preview

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Tonga Men v Wales Men Tuesday 5:30am at Totally Wicked Stadium, St Helens

Tonga look to cement quarter-final spot as they face a valiant Wales side.

Monday night BST sees an important group D match between Tonga and Wales, to be played in St Helens. Tonga are coming off a shaky victory against a strong Kumuls side, and a win against Wales will all but secure their spot in the knock-out stage. Wales, meanwhile, will be up for the fight with their tournament on the line.

Coming into the world cup as the second ranked team in the world, Tonga are carrying the weight of expectation. With a star-studded line up filled with plenty of first class players, the Tongans will want to finish on top of their group to give them the best chance of progressing through to the semi-finals. This is no easy task, however, as PNG reminded them in their opening game.

Behind early against the Kumuls, Tonga fought back to gain a 12 point advantage by half-time. Worryingly for Tonga, they allowed PNG to fight their way back into the game, something that Tonga won't be able to get away with against the top teams. The scoreboard was level at 18 until the 77th minute, when Rabbitoh Koloamatangi scored off the back of a disjointed last tackle play.

The six point win has them tied at the top of the group with the Cook Islands, but a comfortable win against Wales should give them some breathing space. Their young guns, Isaiya Katoa; who is expected to beat Dragon Amone to the spot in the halves alongside Lolohea; and Tolutau Koula will be crucial to the outcome of this game.

Not having won a world cup match since they went all the way to the semi-finals in 2000, Wales came agonisingly close to two competition points in their opening game of the tournament. Playing a relatively experienced Cook Islands side in Leigh, they opened the scoring and led by four at the break. The Kukis started the second half strong though, and built a lead. Wales had plenty of opportunities to level the game up in the dying minutes, but they just weren't clinical enough, with the final score being 18-12.

Tonga are a much tougher challenge for the Welsh, but a loss would all but end their already dim hopes of progressing out of the group stage. Expect their players to lift to another level with their tournament on the line. Josh Ralph, Elliot Kear and Ollie Olds will play a big role in what Wales brings to the match, while their fullback Caleb Aekins provides plenty of experience.

For Wales to cause an upset, their forward pack must stay tight in defence. If they allow Tonga to roll through the middle, the scoreline could get ugly. Tonga will need to keep a level head - they have Wales beat on paper, and if they find their rhythm and go through their paces, they will come away with a win.

Last meeting: haven't met at international level

Who to watch: One of the major signings for new NRL club The Dolphins, Tonga's Felise Kaufusi has plenty of first class experience. He won the 2017 and 2020 NRL premierships with the Melbourne Storm, and has been a mainstay in the Queensland Maroons squad for the past five years. Furthermore, he brings tier 1 experience to the Tongan team, having earned a handful of caps for the Kangaroos throughout his career. His experience, leadership, and performance in the Tongan forward pack will be crucial to the outcome of this match.

Welsh back rower Rhodri Lloyd has plenty of experience at a number of clubs through the European lower grades, and at just 29 years old he has earned 18 caps for his national side. He played a major role in the strong Welsh performance last week that saw him cross for a try. But it was his play with one minute to go that showed what he's all about - getting up off the line to charge down the kick from the Cook Islands, before regathering and giving his team an attacking set which kept them in the match.

The favourite: Tonga are the strong favourites to get the win and go two from two so far in their charge for the World Cup.

My tip: Unfortunately for Wales, I just can't see them matching it with the might of Tonga. Tonga by 26.

22. Tesi Niu 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Siosifa Talakai 23. Konrad Hurrell 5. Sione Katoa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Tuimoala Lolohea 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 14. Soni Luke 17. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 16. Tevita Tatola 18. David Fifita 20. Tolutau Koula 21. Ben Murdoch-Masila 15. Haumole Olakau'atu

1. Caleb Aekins 2. Rhys Williams 5. Dalton Grant 6. Elliot Kear 22. Kyle Evans 14. Ollie Olds 7. Josh Ralph 8. Anthony Walker 9. Matty Fozard 24. Gavin Bennion 12. Chester Butler 17. Bailey Antrobus 16. Joe Burke 10. Dan Fleming 15. Curtis Davies 18. Connor Davies 21. Tom Hopkins 23. James Olds

Referees: Kasey Badger; Sideline Officials: Michael Smaill, Rochelle Tamarua; Video Referees: Adam Gee;