Raiders v Sea Eagles preview

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Canberra Raiders v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles Friday 8:00pm at GIO Stadium Canberra, Bruce / Ngunnawal

The implications of a Raiders loss in this match for the Green Machine are enough to cause coach Ricky Stuart some great deal of grief. 

A loss here has the potential to see Canberra drop from top of the table down to third - that's if Melbourne beats Brisbane and Canterbury rack up a comfortable win over the Warriors - both scenarios a very strong chance of happening.

Manly too can ill-afford a loss here either as they are already 2 points behind the eighth placed Dolphins, but with a 165 points difference deficit to the team presumably from Redcliffe - Manly cannot be level with the Dolphins on competition points - they need to be ahead.

So we have the makings for a must-win game for both sides. Both sides come into this contest after miserly performances last week - Manly lost 20-4 to the Roosters while the Raiders lost 18-12 to bottom 9 side St George-Illawarra, ending the Raiders 9 game winning streak.

Manly have won just 6 of their last 15 NRL games to see them meekly fall out of the top 8. Last weeks poor showing against the Roosters came 6 days after Manly were belted 42-4 by the Bulldogs.

These sides are rather evenly matched when looking at key stats like time in possession and completions - both sides being in the top 4 for each category, showing they have plenty of respect, patience and discipline in attack. Canberra's big asset this year though has been their forwards dominance in the middle - leading the league in post contact metres, second best for tackle breaks, line breaks, dummy half runs and offloads.

If teams fail to halt their progress running the ball in the middle or producing second phase play, the Raiders outside backs will take those opportunities and turn them into either field position or points.

Manly have been solid enough defensively in the middle which will make for a great battle here. The Sea-Eagles though have lacked the usual spark they've always got from evergreen halfback Daly Cherry-Evans. Five-eighth Luke Brooks has stepped up somewhat, but he's no DCE and the results this year show how much DCE's form has dropped off in 2025.

But as they say in the classics, form is temporary, class is permanent. If ever a situation called for Cherry-Evans to stand up and take control, this is it.

Last meeting: Round 3 2025 - Sea Eagles 40 Raiders 12

Who to watch: Ethan Strange has been playing some very impressive footy of late, always lingering in support, producing some strong carries, showing us his lovely short passing game and forming a great attacking unit on the left edge for the Raiders. Owen Pattie has been electric coming on as the back-up rake, continuing the platform set by Tom Starling. Kaeo Weekes has also been in good form of late.

Manly's ever reliable Reuben Garrick has a knack for crossing the stripe, while in recent weeks Luke Brooks and Ethan Bullemor have been playing well despite being in an inconsistent, struggling outfit. Siosiua Taukeiaho has also been strong in the middle.

Favourite: Canberra are favourites, but not in an emphatic fashion. After a long win streak comes to an end, its unclear how the pressure of regaining that winning form will impact this Raiders side, especially so close to the finals. Playing a team that can beat every other team, that is in inconsistent form, really does make this a tricky contest to judge.

My tip: Manly have the capability to win this match. Not sure they will be a chance here though. Raiders by 16.

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Noah Martin

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Tommy Talau 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matthew Lodge 14. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Corey Waddell 12. Michael Chee Kam 13. Jake Trbojevic 9. Jazz Tevaga 15. Aaron Schoupp 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley 18. Caleb Navale

Referees: Peter Gough; Sideline Officials: Jarrod Cole, Nick Pelgrave; Video Referees: Chris Butler;