Round 23: Cowboys v Broncos preview
Queensland Rivals to Face Off in Potential Finals Preview
The recent history between the North Queensland Cowboys and Brisbane Broncos has been retold many a time over the years, and for good reason; whenever these two sides meet a close and exciting contest usually ensues.
With that being said, it's been a while (by their standards) since the Broncos and Cowboys produced a genuine thriller. Brisbane won 28-16 earlier this year to take care of business in a game that was more lopsided than the scoreboard would indicate, while the three matchups before that were all decided by 14-points or more.
Had the Cowboys not had an off day against the Titans last week, there would be a fair argument to be made that these two are the form teams in the competition; Brisbane haven't put a foot wrong since their bye three weeks ago and North Queensland have won 6 out of their last 7. Despite the 6 straight wins that preceded it, the Cowboys would be extremely disappointed in themselves for laying an egg against the Gold Coast last week, giving up a great chance to solidify their spot in the top eight by doing so. Their defence was as bad as it's been since their slow start to the year, conceding 6 line-breaks and missing 47 tackles, and their attack wasn't close to being good enough to bail them out.
After expectedly undergoing a bit of a form slump during the state of origin period, the Broncos are close to being back at full strength and have been scoring points for fun in their three most recent outings. In that period, they've averaged a league high 34 points per game, with key players Reece Walsh and Adam Reynolds regaining the form they had to start the season 7-1. If there has been a knock on the Broncos recently, it's been their edge defence; all 5 tries conceded in the past two weeks have been outside the numbers. Their big men will have a job to do against a dynamic Cowboys forward pack, and the likes of Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden will be ready to capitalise on any opportunities they are presented with.
In team news, Valentine Holmes is out for the Cowboys after being suspended on Tuesday night. Zac Laybutt has replaced him in the centres on other occasions this year but hasn't been named in the extended squad, so it remains to be seen what Todd Payten will do. In other changes, Taumalolo will start at prop, pushing Coen Hess to the edge and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki out of the side. Griffin Neame and Heilum Luki are the new faces on the bench.
For the Broncos, Jesse Arthars is back, replacing Deine Mariner on the wing, while Brendan Piakura is in the back row, allowing Pat Carrigan to return to his preferred position of lock. Piakura's inclusion also forces Keenan Palasia to the bench and Xavier Willison out of the side.
It's a huge game in the context of both team's seasons. The Broncos have a tough run home and could easily fall out of the top two with a couple of losses, while the Cowboys are now firmly in amongst the 7-team fight for the last four spots in the top eight.
Last meeting: Round 2 2023 - Broncos 28 Cowboys 16
Who to watch: Cowboys coach Todd Payten's use of star forward Jason Taumalolo has been the cause of a lot of controversy ever since he took the job in Townsville, and it appears there'll be another change to the Tongan enforcer's role come Saturday afternoon. In the first 7 weeks of the season, Taumalolo started at lock and averaged 53 minutes per game. The Cowboys went 2-5 in this stretch and Taumalolo was poor by his standards, only cracking 200 metres twice and missing roughly 3 tackles per game before getting injured. Since he's been back, Taumalolo has exclusively come off the bench and produced some of his best football in years while doing so, cutting down on the missed tackles while matching his early season output but doing so more efficiently. His performance against the Titans was probably his worst since returning though, missing 6 tackles and only running 119 metres without a tackle break. It'll be the big man's 250th game on Saturday, but his first start at prop, and it will be interesting to see how Payten's use of him differs to what he's done previously.
For the Broncos, young five-eighth Ezra Mam has undergone a period of poor form, which is to be expected at some stage for any playmaker who stars immediately after coming into the league. Last week against the Roosters was a huge step in the right direction for Mam, rediscovering something close to his best form, which will be the standard he has to continue playing at if the Broncos are to make a charge for the premiership. He bagged a try double, the first coming after he chased a Reece Walsh kick and won the race to the ball, the second coming in garbage time after he scooped up an ill-advised kick from Billy Smith to run 80 metres and score untouched. He also had two tackle busts and a line-break assist, while making 18 tackles for only two misses throughout the night. It's clear that Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh are the two main playmakers for the Broncos, but if Mam can continue playing his role, backing-up in support and occasionally chiming in with moments of individual brilliance, all of which he's capable of, it'll go a long way to helping the Broncos make a deep charge into late September or early October.
Favourite: The Broncos are 4-point favourites over the Cowboys at the time of writing.
My tip: The Broncos, in my opinion, are clearly the better side and are coming off an extra three days of rest. While being back at home will definitely be an advantage for the Cowboys, I don't think it'll be enough to get them over the line. Broncos by 8.
